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FXCA20 KWBC 221305
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
905 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAR
22/12UTC: OUT THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
RAINIEST. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS AN
AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEN
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY ONWARD...REMAINING IN THE LOWER
END OF NORMAL.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. IN THE MID LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND BECOME AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND
INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
ONWARD. GIVEN THIS WIND FLOW AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED...THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER PR WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PR...WHILE EASTERN PR WILL HAVE AN
ADVECTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM 1.3 TO 1.8 INCHES
TODAY. FROM THURSDAY UNTIL SATURDAY...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
DECREASE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN MAINLY BETWEEN 0.8 AND
1.2 INCHES...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL. THEN THIS WEEKEND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY REMAIN BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY COULD REACH ONE INCH OR MORE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PR...DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TO
POSSIBLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THURSDAY ONWARD. VERY
LITTLE...IF ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS
OF WESTERN PR DUE TO ANY SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ACROSS THE
USVI...TODAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST DAYS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE TOTALS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
TODAY. FOR THURSDAY ONWARD...LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE USVI...WITH ONLY QUICK SHOWERS EXPECTED AT MOST...POSSIBLY
LEAVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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