059
FXCA20 KWBC 221904
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT WED MAR 22 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 22 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: THERE IS A LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS
ALSO PRESENT...CAUSING AN UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS IS WEAKENING AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE
WIND INVERSION THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. THERE IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS INTO CUBA. THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING...WITH ONLY REMNANTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY...AND
FRAGMENTED BY FRIDAY. FOR THAT REASON...SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
PERHAPS 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN 10-20MM. MOST OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER... NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY NEAR A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY RANGES BETWEEN 10-15MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM.
THEN ON THURSDAY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH TOTALS OF 00-05MM WITH MAX UP TO 10MM...WHILE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN PERU INTO ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA...THEN ALSO ACROSS BRAZIL ALONG THE NET...WHILE THE
GUIANAS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND THEN
FROM COSTA RICA TO PANAMA...AMOUNTS OF RAIN BETWEEN 05-10
MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THOSE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT FRIDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY WETTER...WITH MAXIMAS
UP TO 20MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHILE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA HAS LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT TODAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY...ALBEIT BY A SMALL MARGIN. RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 05-10MM/DAY TODAY
WITH MAX UP TO 20MM...BUT MAXIMAS UP TO 25MM CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE ACROSS ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN RAIN
FREE TODAY AND THURSDAY. ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL OBSERVE
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15-25MM TODAY. BUT THEN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOSE SECTIONS...MAY OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-40MM. THE AMAZONAS STATE IN BRAZIL EAST INTO
THE GUIANAS WILL OBSERVE GENERALLY 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
BETWEEN 15 AND 35MM EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THAT RANGE BEING FORECAST ALONG THE NET IN
BRAZIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF BRAZIL MAY OBSERVE UP TO 50MM
ON FRIDAY.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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