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FXCA20 KWBC 231259
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAR
23/12UTC: A FAIRLY TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS ACROSS PR/USVI. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY...BUT STARTING LATE FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...AND IT WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT VERY
LITTLE RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED TODAY...IF ANY. IN THE GENERAL WIND
FLOW PATTERN...WE CAN EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PR...THEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOONS...BUT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND ON FRIDAY...WHILE
EASTERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS INVERSION WILL CAUSE STABILITY AND WILL ALSO HELP INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS WIND FLOW AND THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
PR...BUT AGAIN WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND MAY BE MORE TOWARDS WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PR...WHILE EASTERN PR WILL HAVE AN ADVECTIVE RAINFALL
PATTERN EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND OR JUST
BELOW 1.0 INCHES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN IT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON SATURDAY...FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.0
THIS WEEKEND. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY WOULD BE OF 0.10 INCHES
OR LESS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PR...FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE. FOR FRIDAY ONWARD...JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN PR DUE TO ANY SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THE WETTEST DAY COULD BE SATURDAY WHERE OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR NORTHEASTERN PR. ACROSS THE
USVI...LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY QUICK SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT MOST...POSSIBLY LEAVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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