169
FXCA20 KWBC 231859
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 23 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...CAUSING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...TURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY. THIS GENERAL
WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY...AND EASTERLY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH WITH EACH PASSING
DAY...WHILE A LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE MID LEVELS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS MOVING EAST. THIS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE
STABILITY TO INCREASE AND A TRADE WIND INVERSION ACROSS THE
TROPICS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE PATCHES OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TRADE
WIND INVERSION...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH REMNANTS EXPECTED
BY THIS EVENING...AND FRAGMENTED BY FRIDAY. FOR THAT REASON...SOME
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN PERHAPS 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX
VALUES BETWEEN 10-15MM...BUT MUCH DRIER FOR SATURDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SEE SOME RAIN EACH DAY.
MOST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TODAY NEAR A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA TODAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY RANGES BETWEEN 00-05MM WITH MAX UP TO
10MM...WHILE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
OTHER PARTS OF MEXICO...IN PARTICULAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
VERACRUZ...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH TOTALS
NEAR 10-15MM WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 25MM.
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND THEN
FROM COSTA RICA TO PANAMA...AMOUNTS OF RAIN BETWEEN 05-10
MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOSE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT FRIDAY LOOKS SLIGHTLY WETTER...WITH MAXIMAS
UP TO 20MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WHILE SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA HAS LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY FROM NORTHWESTERN PERU INTO ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA...THEN
ALSO ACROSS BRAZIL ALONG THE NET...WHILE THE GUIANAS WILL RECEIVE
SOME RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE 3-DAY PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHERN BRAZIL. ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE ACROSS
ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA...EVERY DAY THOSE SECTORS WILL
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL. ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL OBSERVE
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 20-40MM TODAY. THEN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOSE SECTIONS...MAY OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 20-35MM. THE AMAZONAS STATE IN BRAZIL EAST INTO THE GUIANAS
WILL OBSERVE GENERALLY 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15 AND
35MM EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF THE
BRAZILIAN STATES...EASTERN AMAZONAS...PARA...AND AMAPA MAY OBSERVE
UP TO 50MM ON FRIDAY.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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