890
FXCA20 KWBC 271242
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAR
27/12UTC: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE. EARLY THIS MORNING...BRIEF
SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AS WELL AS
VIEQUES..CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN USVI. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...LEADING TO FAIR
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...TUESDAY...AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE LATER ON
WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...AND WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MAY
BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN THE MID
LEVELS. THIS MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND
AS WELL...VERY LOW RH VALUES AT THE 700-500MB LEVEL...BUT
INCREASING TO NORMAL LEVELS LATE ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...BRIEF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR PR/USVI
TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT CAUSING VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY...INCREASING ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY COULD BE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT IF THE MODELS WERE TO
VERIFY WITH THE INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE DEPTH AND SOME
INSTABILITY INCREASE DUE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY
SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD BE IN A BETTER POSITION FOR
INSTABILITY OVER PR/USVI...BUT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
DECREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.
THE VERY LIMITED...IF ANY RAINFALL THAT COULD OCCUR FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY COULD ACCUMULATE AROUND 0.10 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS
EASTERN PR...WITH EVEN LESS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY BUT PERHAPS A BIT
MORE COVERAGE IN OVERALL RAINFALL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD CAUSE UP TO 0.50 INCHES
OR SO OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR...AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS WEST TO NORTHWEST PR IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY...UNDER
0.20 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PR AND ACROSS
ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN PR DUE THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE. ACROSS
THE USVI...BRIEF SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. ACCUMULATIONS
OF UNDER 0.10 INCHES ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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