908
FXCA20 KWBC 271851
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 27 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN PERU ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE RAINIEST ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...BUT WEDNESDAY IS CLOSELY BEHIND. IT
LOOKS LIKE 24 HOUR MAXIMAS OF 75-125MM AND 75-100MM OR SO COULD BE
OBSERVED ON ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESPECTIVELY...ON TOP OF THE
30-60MM THAT COULD BE OBSERVED TODAY. DUE TO A KELVIN WAVE PASSING
THROUGH AND A CONVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF PERU.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY AND TUESDAY...CAUSING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE FURTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GENERAL WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THAT SAID...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE
LOCAL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE GULF TO BECOME NORTHERLY
WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THERE ARE LOW LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY JETS WILL CAUSE SOME
RAINFALL TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THERE IS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THAT WILL CAUSE SOME STABILITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL CAUSE AREAS OF RAINFALL FROM NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST ALONG VERACRUZ. TUESDAY WILL BE THE DAY WITH
MOST ACCUMULATIONS BUT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SOME RAIN AS WELL.
TOTALS RANGING FROM 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 35MM ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA...WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND UP TO 35MM ALONG THE
EASTERN PORTIONS.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATCHES OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT DUE TO THE TRADE
WIND INVERSION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHILE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS COULD BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05MM/DAY WITH MAX VALUES PROBABLY UP TO 10MM.
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE EAST WILL BE
AFFECTING NICARAGUA...ALONG WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW OVER COSTA RICA
INTO PANAMA...THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
BETWEEN 05-10 MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM/DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PERU...WHERE THERE IS A 48-HOUR FORECAST OF UP TO 150-200MM FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED KELVIN
WAVE AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PERU...AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF
ECUADOR INTO WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 10-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 25-50MM ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTIONS OF NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA...GENERALLY ALONG THE NET. THE AMAZONAS STATE IN
BRAZIL EAST INTO THE GUIANAS WILL OBSERVE GENERALLY 05-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15 AND 35MM EACH DAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF THE
BRAZILIAN STATES...SOUTHERN AMAZONAS...PARA...AND AMAPA MAY
OBSERVE UP TO 50MM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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