766
FXCA20 KWBC 281919
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 28 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
PERU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PROVINCES OF PIURA...CAJAMARCA...AND
LAMBAYEQUE. RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS COULD HAVE MAXIMAS OF
75-100MM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE 75-125MM COULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY. DUE TO A KELVIN WAVE PASSING THROUGH AND A
CONVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PERU...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY...CAUSING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE FURTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GENERAL WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EVEN WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE US WILL CAUSE THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE LOW LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY JETS WITH THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL CAUSE RAINFALL TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL CAUSE SOME STABILITY OVER
THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...AND COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
COMING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CAUSE RAINFALL FROM NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...SOUTH ALONG VERACRUZ. TODAY WILL BE THE DAY WITH MOST
ACCUMULATIONS BUT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE SOME RAIN AS WELL. TOTALS
RANGING FROM 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM TODAY...THEN
MAXIMAS BETWEEN 20-35MM FOR SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...BUT
15 TO 25MM ACROSS TABASCO AND CHIAPAS. THURSDAY WOULD BE THE DAY
WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 10MM FROM NUEVO
LEON TO TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
OAXACA AND CHIAPAS.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATCHES OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT DUE TO
THE TRADE WIND INVERSION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY...THEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRIEF SHOWERS COULD CAUSE A 24-HR RAINFALL TOTAL UP TO
10MM ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES.
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE EAST WILL BE
AFFECTING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...ALONG WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW
OVER COSTA RICA INTO PANAMA...THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED WILL BE
BETWEEN 05-10 MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM/DAY FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND THE WINDWARD SIDE
COULD SEE TOTALS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 25-45MM TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A LITTLE LESS RAIN ON THURSDAY...05-10MM WITH
MAX OF 15-30MM.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PERU...WHERE THERE IS A 24-HOUR FORECAST OF 25-50MM/DAY WITH MAX
BETWEEN 75-125MM TODAY...WHILE MAX OF 75-100MM COULD BE OBSERVED
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
KELVIN WAVE AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING THE RISK
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT. PORTIONS OF ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS WELL...TOTALS OF 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 25 AND 60MM EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THERE WILL ALSO BE
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR
10-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 25-50MM ACROSS NORTHERN
BRAZIL...ESPECIALLY OVER PARA AND AMAPA TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE MUCH LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH MAX BETWEEN 15 AND 25MM. SURINAME AND
FRENCH GUIANA WILL OBSERVE 15-20MM WITH MAX OF 30-60MM
TODAY...BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY EXPECT 05-10MM WITH MAX OF
15-25MM. MOST OF VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF GUYANA WILL OBSERVE
PREVAILING FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHERE 05-10MM WITH MAX
OF 15-25MM MAY BE OBSERVED.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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