047
FXCA20 KWBC 291936
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 29 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
PERU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PROVINCES OF PIURA...CAJAMARCA...AND
LAMBAYEQUE. HOWEVER...LATE ON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE EAST AND ALSO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE AMAZONIAS AND LORETO
PROVINCES. RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS COULD HAVE MAXIMAS OF
75-100MM DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA.
WESTERN ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE NOT FAR BEHIND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
AS WELL. THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAXIMAS ACROSS THOSE AREAS COULD
BE BETWEEN 20 AND 50MM TODAY...40 TOP 80MM ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...AND AS MUCH AS 40-100MM ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...CAUSING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS...WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINFALL BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN
10-15MM/DAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE US WILL CAUSE THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SHIFT TO
A SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
JETS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE JETS WILL WILL CAUSE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING. A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
COMING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CAUSE RAINFALL FROM NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...SOUTH ALONG VERACRUZ TODAY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS ESTIMATED
TO BE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. TODAY WILL BE THE DAY WITH
MOST ACCUMULATIONS...SOME RAIN WILL BE OBSERVED ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT IN LESSER AMOUNTS. OAXACA AND CHIAPAS MAY OBSERVE
SOME RAIN TODAY AS WELL...ESTIMATED RAINFALL BEING 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA UP TO 15MM.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT A TRADE WIND INVERSION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
DEEP CONVECTION AT BAY...THOUGH PERSISTENT OFF AND ON SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT THE ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE 24-HR
RAINFALL TOTAL UP TO 10MM ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES...BUT UP TO 15MM COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.
CENTRAL AMERICA...ONSHORE WIND FLOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE. THE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED GENERALLY WILL BE BETWEEN 05-10
MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF AROUND 15MM EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PERU...WHERE THERE IS A
24-HOUR FORECAST OF 25-50MM/DAY WITH MAX BETWEEN 75-100MM COULD BE
OBSERVED ON TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF ECUADOR AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS
WELL...TOTALS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS AS MUCH AS 40-80MM COULD
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE ON FRIDAY...75-100MM COULD
BE OBSERVED ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS ISOLATED AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 10-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 30-60MM ACROSS NORTHERN BRAZIL...ESPECIALLY
OVER PARA AND AMAPA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE MUCH LESS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH MAX BETWEEN 15 AND
25MM...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA WILL OBSERVE 05-10MM
WITH MAX OF 15-25MM TODAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST OF VENEZUELA
AND PORTIONS OF GUYANA WILL OBSERVE PREVAILING FAIR WEATHER
TODAY...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE LATE ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHERE 05-10MM WITH MAX OF 15-25MM MAY BE OBSERVED.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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