736
FXCA20 KWBC 301832
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 30 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN
MOST AREAS... A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN PERU. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD MOVE EAST AND AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE AMAZONIAS AND LORETO PROVINCES. RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS FROM NORTHERN TO NORTHWESTERN PERU AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA COULD HAVE MAXIMAS OF
50-80MM EACH DAY...BUT THE AMAZONIAS AND LORETO PROVINCES COULD
SEE AS MUCH AS 100MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...CAUSING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE
IS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WEST INTO
THE BAHAMAS...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH BUT WILL
STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY BY SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES MOVING EAST. THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAINFALL
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS...BUT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10-15MM/DAY. LOW LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE JETS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND WINDWARD SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO...COMBINED WITH THE WINDS COMING IN FROM THE
GULF...WILL CAUSE SOME RAINFALL FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON TODAY AND ON SATURDAY...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ESTIMATED TO BE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...AREAS NEAR SAN LUIS POTOSI COULD OBSERVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AS WELL.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATCHES OF MOISTURE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT A TRADE WIND INVERSION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THE
24-HR RAINFALL TOTAL EXPECTED EACH DAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE UP TO
10MM ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THAT SAID...LOCALLY INDUCES SHOWERS AND INTERACTION WITH THE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...ONSHORE WIND FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDE. THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED GENERALLY WILL BE
BETWEEN 05-10 MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF AROUND 15MM EACH DAY FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COULD HAVE UP
TO 25MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS TODAY.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT...EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERN PERU...HAS A 24-HOUR
FORECAST OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAX BETWEEN 40-80MM TODAY...BUT UP TO
100MM ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF ECUADOR AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS
WELL...TOTALS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS AS MUCH AS 40-80MM COULD
BE EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 10-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 30-60MM ACROSS NORTHERN BRAZIL...ESPECIALLY
OVER AMAZONAS...PARA AND AMAPA EACH DAY. SURINAME AND FRENCH
GUIANA WILL OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAX OF 15-25MM EACH DAY UNTIL
SATURDAY. MOST OF VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF GUYANA WILL OBSERVE
PREVAILING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WHERE 05-10MM WITH MAX OF 15-25MM MAY BE
OBSERVED.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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