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FXCA20 KWBC 311248
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAR
31/12UTC: AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD BE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. ACROSS THE MID LEVELS THERE IS
A HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT SHOULD DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO STRONG TRADE WIND CAP
EXPECTED EARLY TODAY...BUT THE TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL RETURN
BY TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST...WITH ITS AXIS MOVING THROUGH PR/USVI TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH...LIKELY DUE TO THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE TODAY...RETURN TO NORMAL
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN DECREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY...CAUSING GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF EASTERN AND W/SW
PR. THE USVI ALSO HAS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE TIME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI WOULD BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AS FAR AS
W/SW PR...THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO CAUSE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT AGAIN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH THE BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE
THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF
ANY...WOULD LEAVE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES
OF RAIN. EASTERN PR WOULD OBSERVE SOME RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE W/SW PR HAS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL CAUSE MORE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN PR IN SHOWERS COMING IN FROM THE EAST...WHILE WESTERN PR
WOULD HAVE LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN MORE AGREEMENT CURRENTLY FOR THE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY...AND IT
IS ONCE AGAIN THAT OF ADVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI...WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR.
THE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A MAX RAINFALL CLOSE TO 0.25 INCHES.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY WEST
AND ARE STRENGTHEN AS UPPER AIR DIVERGENCE AND IN THE MID
LEVELS...NO TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK...ALLOWING FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THESE DAYS MAY BE THE RAINIEST IN THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. ON MONDAY...MAXIMA AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 0.35
INCHES...WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION INTO VIEQUES COULD SEE AMOUNTS
BELOW 0.15 INCHES. AND FOR TUESDAY...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
AS THE PULSES OF MOISTURE REACH PUERTO RICO. WESTERN PUERTO RICO
COULD SEE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5-0.6 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL. WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLAND COULD SEE UP TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN...HOWEVER MAXIMAS
MAY STAY OFFSHORE.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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