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FXCA20 KWBC 311831
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 31 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS CAUSING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE
IS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WEST INTO
THE BAHAMAS...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY UNTIL IT REACHES
NORTHERN CUBA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH BUT
WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY BY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EXTREME NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BECOMING A WARM SURFACE FRONT NORTHWARD INTO ALABAMA.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SOME RAINFALL OVER THE
BAHAMAS...TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH TOTALS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMAS UP TO 10MM. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.
A TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...COMBINED WITH THE WINDS COMING IN
FROM THE GULF. ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY...SOME
RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...WITH ACCUMULATIONS
ESTIMATED TO BE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM...THOUGH ISOLATED
SECTIONS OF NUEVO LEON COULD BE ON THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE. IN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL IN MEXICO...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH AND
WINDS INTERACTING WITH THE REGION. THE BORDER REGION BETWEEN NUEVO
LEON AND COAHUILA COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
10MM.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATCHES OF MOISTURE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT A TRADE WIND INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY...WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. THE 24-HR
RAINFALL TOTAL EXPECTED EACH DAY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT SOME AREAS
COULD OBSERVE UP TO 10MM ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES
TODAY AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION DECREASE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
GENERAL AREA AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE BASIN. A LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TO THE EAST SLOWLY
EXTENDING FROM AROUND 26N 48W SOUTHWEST OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA. MOISTURE IN
THE CENTRAL ANTILLES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WITH AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM.
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...ONSHORE WIND FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDE. THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED GENERALLY WILL BE
BETWEEN 05-10 MM/DAY...WITH MAXIMAS OF AROUND 15MM EACH DAY FOR
TODAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
COULD HAVE UP TO 25MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. FOR SUNDAY...CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE LOCAL
TERRAIN...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY IN
BELIZE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTS
OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COULD SEE AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
FOR BELIZE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS MEANDERING
WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC AND CENTERS AROUND 13S 77W JUST SOUTH OF
LIMA IN PERU BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER AIR
DIVERGENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA
AND AREA OF THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL IN ECUADOR. ADDITIONALLY...THE
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COMING FROM THE WEST INTO WEST
ECUADOR...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. TO THE
EAST...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA
AND THE GUIANAS...WHILE THE NET MOVES TO THE SOUTH FURTHER INTO
BRAZIL. THEREFORE... CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT...EVEN THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERN
PERU...ESPECIALLY IN THE PROVINCES OF AMAZONIA AND LORETO COULD
OBSERVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15-20MM WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 75-100MM
TODAY...DECREASING TO MAXIMAS AROUND 25MM ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...WESTERN ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL SEE RAINFALL
NEAR 15-20MM WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN 25-60MM TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD
BE NEAR 10-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 30-60MM ACROSS NORTHERN
BRAZIL...ESPECIALLY OVER AMAZONAS...PARA AND AMAPA EACH DAY.
SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA WILL OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAX OF
15-25MM TODAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF
GUYANA WILL OBSERVE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY.
WESTERN ECUADOR IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY WITH 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM.
WESTERN COLOMBIA...NORTHWEST PERU...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH BRAZIL
ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. ALONG THE
CORDILLERA OCCIDENTAL IN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA...THE NORTH COAST OF VENEZUELA...NORTHERN AMAPA AND
PARA...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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