393
FXCA20 KWBC 031847
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT MON APR 03 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 03 APR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: AT THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PERU...WESTERN
ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. MOVING INTO A
FAVORABLE MJO PHASE...THE ABOVE NORMAL WARM WATERS TO THE WEST OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ARE CAUSING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DAILY MAXIMAS OF SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 75-125MM COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS AT LEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WEST OF THE AZORES IS CAUSING AN EASTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THAT IS HELPING WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. A TUTT WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STRENGTHENING BY WEDNESDAY AND
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
A LLJ ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY AND ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL US DOWN TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE 10-15MM WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 35MM ACROSS SECTIONS OF
COAHUILA...NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS...WHILE EVEN HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 50MM IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS
POTOSI...NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT STATES TO THE WEST OF
NORTHERN VERACRUZ. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO
COULD CAUSE BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS CHIAPAS...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS
LIKE A MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL PATTERN COULD PERSIST...CAUSING
10-15MM WITH MAX UP TO 45MM IN ISOLATED AREAS DUE TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY
AND TUESDAY...CAUSING AN ADVECTIVE PATTERN OF BRIEF SHOWERS OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 00-05MM WITH MAXIMAS UP
TO 10MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY A STRONG TUTT WILL DEVELOP AND
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
THIS WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE LESSER ANTILLES...HAITI AND
JAMAICA COULD SEE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 25MM OF RAIN...WHILE
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECAST TO HAVE 15-20MM
WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 50MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. THE BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE MUCH LESS RAIN... WITH TOTALS
OF 00-05MM AND MAX UP TO 10 MM.
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE ONSHORE WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP
TO 15-25MM IS FORECAST FOR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SOME BRIEF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE 00-05MM WITH A MAX
OF 10MM. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH MOST OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...EL SALVADOR...AND
WEST/SOUTH GUATEMALA OBSERVING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THERE IS ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN GUATEMALA ON
WEDNESDAY NEAR THE BORDER WITH MEXICO.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PANAMANIAN LOW AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ARE CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA DOWN TO
NORTHWESTERN PERU. COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WILL PUT THIS WESTERN
COAST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AT RISK FOR MCS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHWESTERN PERU TO ECUADOR. THROUGH
MIDWEEK...AND LIKELY EVEN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THESE AREAS. DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 75 AND 125MM.
THAT SAID...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BIT LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMAS UP TO 60MM...THOUGH ISOLATED AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE RULED OUT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...MOSTLY OVER BRAZIL...A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...ALONG
THE NET...IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE GENERALLY BETWEEN 05-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 35MM. PORTIONS OF AMAPA COULD OBSERVE SLIGHTLY
MORE RAINFALL UP TO 45MM ON WEDNESDAY. THE COAST OF THE GUIANAS
AND VENEZUELA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SOME RAIN...05-10MM WITH MAX
OF 15-25MM. HOWEVER...MOST OF VENEZUELA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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