653
FXCA20 KWBC 051919
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT WED APR 05 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 05 APR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: THE WET SPELL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTORS OF
ECUADOR...COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN PERU. THE 3-DAY RAINFALL
MAXIMA COULD BE AS MUCH AS 100-200MM IN SOME AREAS...BUT ISOLATED
SECTORS OF ECUADOR AND NORTHWESTERN PERU HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
OBSERVING OVER 200MM. THE FAVORABLE MJO PHASE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
LONG FETCH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...WHICH IS PASSING OVER
WATERS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL IS CAUSING A PERSISTENT ENHANCEMENT
IN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CORDILLERA.
THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL A RISK OF ADDITIONAL MCS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RAINFALL MAXIMA FOR TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 75-100MM
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...30-70MM
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ECUADOR...AS WELL AS WEST
CENTRAL COLOMBIA. A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN PERU HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMA IN THE 75-100MM RANGE TODAY AS WELL. ON
THURSDAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY INTO VERY EARLY
FRIDAY...25-50MM WITH MAXIMA OF 75-100 IS FORECAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN PERU INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM ON THURSDAY.THE AMOUNT OF RAIN DECREASES FOR
FRIDAY...WITH CENTRAL COLOMBIA HAVING 10-15MM WITH MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN THE FORECAST...WHILE OTHER AREAS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA
SOUTH THROUGH ECUADOR INTO NORTHWESTERN PERU...POSSIBLY OBSERVING
10-15MM WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 15 AND 25MM.
A HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE AZORES WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST...GIVING WAY FOR ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...PREVAILING
UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND A COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING FROM THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AND INTO THE CENTRAL US. BY THURSDAY...THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO
LOUISIANA...AND THE COLD FRONT FROM LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEAST.
AND ON FRIDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
PREVAILS...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND DEVELOP A
WARM FRONT FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...EXTENDING EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE OF GEORGIA. THE COLD FRONT THEN WILL BE
PRESENT FROM THE GEORGIA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE CARIBBEAN THIS SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER PR...WHILE THE TUTT WILL CENTER
BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SETUP WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AS
WELL AS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AS FAR AS
-12C ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THE
REST OF TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO THE
MOISTURE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DEEP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE DAILY RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA UP TO 50MM
ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS PR/USVI. ON FRIDAY... STILL A MAXIMA
OF 50MM IS FORECAST...BUT WESTERN PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE UP TO
25MM AS THE TUTT STARTS TO LIFT AND CAUSES THE INSTABILITY TO BE
STRONGER ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI.
THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THIS IS DUE TO AN EASTERLY LLJ FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL
BRING ONSHORE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALSO...A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND THURSDAY...ENHANCING INSTABILITY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10-15MM WITH MAXIMA
UP TO 35MM ACROSS SECTIONS OF HIDALGO AND BORDERING STATES...WHILE
COAHUILA...NUEVO LEON...TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...COULD HAVE
05-10MM OF RAIN WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND AN UPPER TROUGH
AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER JET WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM COULD BE
OBSERVED ACROSS HIDALGO...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI AND VERACRUZ.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE 10-15MM WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. ON FRIDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT STILL PREVAILS
OVER TAMAULIPAS...BECOMING WARM OFFSHORE TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND TURNING INTO A COLD FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF EASTERN
GEORGIA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION
IN MEXICO BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN
THURSDAY. SAN LUIS POTOSI AND NORTHER VERACRUZ COULD EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH LOCAL MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE
SURROUNDING AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN OAXACA ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL COULD SEE
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HAVE ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY
AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
TOO SIGNIFICANT...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 05-10MM AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA. SOME SECTORS OF EL SALVADOR INTO GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST
TO OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP TO 10MM.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE WET SPELL CONTINUES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PERU NORTH INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PERU...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND
OVER MOST OF BRAZIL...ALONG THE NET...A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE MAINLY BETWEEN 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP
TO 35MM TODAY. PORTIONS OF AMAPA AND PARA COULD OBSERVE MORE
RAINFALL UP TO 45MM TODAY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHEASTERN PERU AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AMAZONAS WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING
15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FOR EASTERN PARA...THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IS LOWER...WITH MAXIMA UP TO 35MM. FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO
HAVE A BIT LESS CONVECTION...WITH THE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA GENERALLY IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM WITH
MAXIMA UP TO 25MM...EXCEPT CENTRAL COLOMBIA WHERE A MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IS FORECAST...AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO THE AMAZONAS
HAVING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE FORECAST.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page