808
FXCA20 KWBC 071608
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1208 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 07 APR 2023 AT 1600 UTC: NORTH IN THE
DOMAIN...FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO A LOW OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS...INTO NORTHERN VERACRUZ. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
YET ON SUNDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHEAST USA WILL STIMULATE CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA...AND PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. INITIALLY...CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE
IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AS IT CONTINUES INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH LOCATED IN WEST TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NUEVO LEON/NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN VERACRUZ AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FRONTAL INVERSION. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS STILL EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL. ON SATURDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WEAKENS...BUT ONSHORE
FLOW INTO THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND EASTERN EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
SUNDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CENTER ON A LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE DOMININCAN REPUBLIC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERITY IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. YET...MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERITY IS POSSIBLE IN HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY...WHERE DEEP
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN PUERTO RICO...REMAINING MOST PLUME WILL FAVOR AN ADDITIONAL
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN HISPANIOLA WHILE AMOUNTS IN
PUERTO RICO DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...PRIMARILY CLUSTERING IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SOUTHERN HAITI...WHILE AMOUNTS DECREASE
TO 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN PUERTO RICO. ALSO
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL
INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING IN CUBA TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN JAMAICA...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON
A DAILY BASIS...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY PERSIST ON
THE 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
A KELVIN WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA/CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO STIMULATE CONVECTION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MOST ACTIVE IS NOW EXPECTED EAST OF
THE ANDES...ACROSS THE AMAZON BASIN AND THE ORINOQUIA. LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC BASIN...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS BY SUNDAY.
INITIALLY/ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
EASTERN ECUADOR/NORTHERN PERU AND THE AMAZON OF COLOMBIA AND
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. NORTH IN THE ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA INTO THE
MAGDALENA MEDIO AND BAJO AND LAKE MARACAIBO REGION EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AND
PORTIONS OF THE COLOMBIAN ORINOQUIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AMAZON...FROM AMAZONAS-BRASIL INTO THE ORIENTE ECUATORIANO
AND THE WESTERN ORINOQUIA IN VENEZUELA...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ON THE 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM RANGE. IN THE
LAKE MARACAIBO REGION INTO ARAUCA/CASANARE IN COLOMBIA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN ANDEAN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA AS A DRIER AIR MASS IS
ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MID-LEVELS. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST AMOUNTS TO CLUSTER ALONG THE
NET...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF ITS
CURRENT POSITION. CURRENT TRENDS SHOW THE NET ALONG SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA INTO THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN ORINOQUIA. EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM NORTHERN BRAZIL INTO
EASTERN COLOMBIA.. ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION IN
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN ANDEAN COLOMBIA...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
PORTIONS...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ALSO
ON SUNDAY...A DESTABILIZATION OF THE PACIFIC BASIN...DIURNAL
BREEZES AND ITCZ CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ECUADORIAN COAST. IN NORTHERN
PERU AND SOUTHWEST ECUADOR EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM.
GALVEZ/ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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