499
FXCA20 KWBC 101625
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EDT MON APR 10 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 10 APR 2023 AT 1620 UTC: NORTH IN THE
DOMAIN...A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS...CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO TAMAULIPAS.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...WHILE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSES IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
USA. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THIS WILL FAVOR THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS...NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO A LOW NEAR 27N 91W...NORTHERN VERACRUZ. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...A LOW NEAR 27N 86W...23N 90W INTO A
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ. INITIALLY...THE
BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE ALONG
THE COAST IN NORTHEAST MEXICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO ESTABLISH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR
ECHO TRAINING. EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH A RISK OF ECHO TRAINING/SQUALLY WEATHER. IN
NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT REMAINING ECHO
TRAINING IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO FAVOR ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. A PREFRONTAL-TROUGH
STRUCTURE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL STIMULATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGER 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
UNSEASONABLY WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
EASTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD...IT WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL/WESTERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU ON TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE AFTER AS A DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ON MONDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM FROM SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SAN LUIS POTOSI. IN
THE EJE VOLCANICO CENTRAL INTO GUERRERO/WESTERN OAXACA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL FROM CENTRAL
CHIHUAHUA INTO ZACATECAS. IN CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTH INTO
GUERRERO/OAXACA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. AMOUNTS
DECREASE AFTER.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS BUILDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY AND VENTILATION FOR
DEEP CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...A MOIST PLUME REMAINS IN
PLACE...EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST VENEZUELA INTO THE SOUTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
STRUCTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N 69W...ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...INTO 14N 70W. THIS WILL FAVOR ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION ON
A DAILY BASIS IN MOST OF HISPANIOLA. ON MONDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST
CUBA. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT AMOUNTS INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
HISPANIOLA...WHILE AMOUNTS DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN EASTERN CUBA. IN CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. IN PUERTO RICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA.
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
COLOMBIA THROUGH THE CYCLE. THE NET...YET DISORGANIZED...HAS
MEANDERED INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE COLOMBIAN ORINOQUIA.
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ON MONDAY...WHILE IN THE
LAKE MARACAIBO REGION AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON TUESDAY
EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN MOST OF
CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WHILE
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ALSO OF RELEVANCE...AN ACTIVATION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ITCZ AND GRADUALLY INCREASE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES IS
EXPECTED TO ACTIVATE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU. ON MONDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN PERU...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN ECUADOR. ON TUESDAY...THIS
INCREASES TO 20-40MM AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-100MM WITH A RISK
OF MCS FORMATION. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN SOUTHERN ECUADOR/NORTHERN PERU...AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA.
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING IN THE
EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY MORNING NEAR 46W. THE WAVE WILL
ENTER FRENCH GUIANA/AMAPA ON TUESDAY...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
SURINAME...FAVORING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN FRENCH
GUIANA...SURINAME AND NORTHERN PARA IN BRASIL.
GALVEZ/ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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