845
FXCA20 KWBC 111631
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 11 APR 2023 AT 1630 UTC: NORTH IN THE
DOMAIN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...IT BECOMES A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WEST
INTO TAMAULIPAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. HOWEVER...BY
THURSDAY...A SMALL STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THEN A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE. THE
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL SHEAR-LINE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TODAY...AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THIS IS WHY THERE IS A RISK FOR ECHO TRAINING AND SQUALLY WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY. IN NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT REMAINING ECHO TRAINING IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO FAVOR ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. A PREFRONTAL-TROUGH STRUCTURE IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL STIMULATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TRIGGER 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE AN
ADDITIONAL 15-20MM/DAY AND A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE MOST OF THE
SIERRA MADRE IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE A DECREASE IN RAINFALL.
RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MEXICO TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
AS THIS TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD...IT WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL/WESTERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU TODAY. ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY ONWARD
AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TODAY...EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
FROM CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA INTO ZACATECAS. IN CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTH
INTO GUERRERO/OAXACA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
AMOUNTS DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SMALL AREA OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO WESTERN GUATEMALA COULD OBSERVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAINFALL IN THE ORDER
OF 05-15MM WITH MAXIMA AT AROUND 20-45MM.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE INSTABILITY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A FEW SURFACE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BASINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
TODAY...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE AMOUNTS
DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA AND JAMAICA...AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. IN PUERTO RICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA TODAY...INCREASING
TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON WEDNESDAY...DECREASING ONCE AGAIN TO A
MAXIMA OF 15MM ON THURSDAY.
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
COLOMBIA THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WESTERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NET
CONTINUES TO CAUSE ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
MOST OF CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA WHILE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ AND GRADUALLY INCREASE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO ACTIVATE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU.
TODAY...THE RAINFALL EXPECTED IS 20-40MM AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
75-100MM WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN ECUADOR/NORTHERN
PERU...AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. ON
THURSDAY...RAINFALL OF 25-50MM WITH MAXIMA OF 75-100MM IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PERU AND SOUTHWESTERN ECUADOR...WHILE WEST
CENTRAL ECUADOR INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE
15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING IN THE
EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FRENCH GUIANA/AMAPA TODAY...TO
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS SURINAME...FAVORING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME AND NORTHERN PARA IN BRASIL.
HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY WAVE WEAKENS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
BECOMES WEAKER.
ALAMO/GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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