818
FXCA20 KWBC 121842
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT WED APR 12 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 12 APR 2023 AT 1840 UTC: NORTH IN THE
DOMAIN...A COLD FRONT IS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ NORTHEAST IN TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK. THE SMALL STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN A WARM FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL SHEAR
LINE WILL MOVE EAST AS IT WEAKENS...STALLING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR IS RETURNING TO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE REMAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
COULD BE NEARLY TWICE THE NORMAL VALUE. AS THE MOISTURE MOVES
EAST...SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR FOR THE
REST OF TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO... BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH EACH PASSING DAY UNTIL FRIDAY. ACROSS
NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ COULD OBSERVE MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. A FRONTAL SHEAR
LINE NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL STIMULATE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGER 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-30MM ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE AN ADDITIONAL 15-20MM/DAY AND A
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE MOST OF THE SIERRA MADRE IS EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE A DECREASE IN RAINFALL. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND
OAXACA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED AREAS WITH 10-15MM OF RAIN WITH MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM...THOUGH MUCH LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
PORTIONS OF CHIAPAS INTO GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM TODAY...UP TO 30MM ON THURSDAY...AND DOWN TO A
MAXIMA OF 20MM ON FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS A FEW
SURFACE TROUGHS PRESENT...COULD CAUSE A PATTERN OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO
LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PRESENT
JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR ECHO TRAINING AND SQUALLY
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY. EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE AMOUNTS
DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA AND JAMAICA...AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. IN PUERTO RICO EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA TODAY...LIKEWISE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON
THURSDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MAXIMAS OF
15MM ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...BUT VERY ISOLATED
SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH 40MM.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRIER...WITH UNDER 10MM OF RAIN GENERALLY IN PUERTO
RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HAITI
COULD OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMA UP TO 25MM.
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
COLOMBIA THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS...WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE NET CONTINUES TO CAUSE ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. TODAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WHILE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES...ARE EXPECTED TO HELP THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU. TODAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHERN ECUADOR/NORTHERN PERU...AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY...RAINFALL OF
25-50MM WITH MAXIMA OF 75-100MM IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PERU AND SOUTHWESTERN ECUADOR...WHILE WEST CENTRAL ECUADOR INTO
SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. THEN ON FRIDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN ECUADOR COULD OBSERVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL...UP TO
60MM...WHILE NORTHWESTERN PERU WILL HAVE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF
50MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS.
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING IN THE
EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FRENCH GUIANA/AMAPA TODAY...TO
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-45MM IN FRENCH
GUIANA...SURINAME AND NORTHERN PARA IN BRASIL...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...UP TO 50MM ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY
WAVE WEAKENS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES WEAKER BY
FRIDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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