378
FXCA20 KWBC 141838
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT FRI APR 14 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 14 APR 2023 AT 1830 UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN USA FROM WESTERN MONTANA INTO SONORA IN
MEXICO. IT IS FORECAST FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST...AS IT AFFECTS
NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND SATURDAY...REACHING TAMAULIPAS BY
SATURDAY EVENING. ITS IMPACTS IN PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO WILL BE
LIMITED...GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
TODAY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WERE UNDER 30MM IN MOST
OF MEXICO...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL CLUSTER PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...ESPECIALLY IN OAXACA AND VERACRUZ. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL INCREASE EACH DAY UNTIL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. NOT ONLY IS THE MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND
ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...TODAY...AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION. AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
WHERE THE SAME AREAS AFOREMENTIONED...IN ADDITION TO TAMAULIPAS...
MAY SEE GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM.
TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM AROUND
22N 65W TO AROUND 25N 74W...AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO START LOSING DEFINITION
AND EVOLVE INTO A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE. THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
MOVE WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS...CAUSING BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OBSERVING
SOME RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TODAY...THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MAY SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INTO A SHEAR LINE ON
SATURDAY...THE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY BUT
EXPAND IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH DISORGANIZED SHOWERS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY WOULD FAVOR UP TO 20MM OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...LITTLE TO NO RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS.
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST
MEXICO...REACHING EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES LIMITED IN THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY AT AROUND 35MM OR LESS...WHICH WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PRESENT.
HOWEVER...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL ACTIVATE DIURNAL CONVECTION
IN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHWEST
HONDURAS BY SUNDAY..WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AS MUCH
AS 50MM ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
EL SALVADOR AND COSTA RICA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH A MAXIMA OF
30MM ON SUNDAY ACROSS EL SALVADOR.
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
HAS VALUES IN THE 30-45MM RANGE BUT PANAMA/COSTA RICA AND
HISPANIOLA/JAMAICA WHERE HIGHER VALUES. THIS WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ENTIRE BASIN TO MAXIMA UNDER 15MM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA AND SOUTHEAST
CUBA. TODAY...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM. ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15MM. THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM.
ON SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERN CUBA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-40MM WITH
OTHER AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN OBSERVING GENERALLY 05-10MM WITH
MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-25MM. THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 45MM ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE GUIANAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE ITCZ AND EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS. THIS
WILL FAVOR WET CONDITIONS IN ALL OF THE GUIANAS AND SOUTHEAST
VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TOWARDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FRENCH GUIANA...PORTIONS OF SURINAME...AND NORTHERN PARA
COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM.
ELSEWHERE IN BRAZIL AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...EASTERN
COLOMBIA...AND PERU...LOWER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED
MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHERN SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...AND
PORTIONS OF AMAPA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
30-60MM. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...INTO NORTHERN
BRAZIL...AND EASTERN PERU MAY SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL...AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ARE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM.
NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
REMAINS ABOVE 60MM OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WILL CAUSE
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NORTHWESTERN
PERU INTO NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 40-80MM. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
PERSISTENT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND PERU.
WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE WESTERN ECUADOR AND NORTHWESTERN PERU MAY OBSERVE
25-50MM WITH MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN
ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH TOTALS OF 15-20MM AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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