278
FXCA20 KWBC 171231
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
831 AM EDT MON APR 17 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM APR
17/12UTC: THE LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN
PR EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
AROUND 1.1 - 1.3 INCHES TODAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING ON
TUESDAY...PEAKING AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT 1.5
INCHES OR SO. ON THURSDAY...IT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 1.3
INCHES...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY...REACHING UP TO 1.8
INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
LOWER END OF NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE AND BE ON THE UPPER
END OF NORMAL ON TUESDAY...THEN START DECREASING ON WEDNESDAY
UNTIL THURSDAY...BUT REMAINING NEAR NORMAL...THEN INCREASE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
TRADE WIND INVERSION...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT LOCALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION. WEAK TROUGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
APPROACH PR/USVI FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA...ESPECIALLY WHEN
AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.
IN TERMS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
EASTERLY TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON....WHERE
RAINFALL MAXIMA SURPASSING 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ISOLATED
SECTIONS. ON TUESDAY ONWARD...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD
AFFECT THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO...WHILE THE RAINFALL MAXIMA COULD ALSO SURPASS 1 INCH EACH
AFTERNOON. LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
MOISTURE DECREASES...AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL AND MORE GENERALIZED. AT THIS TIME EASTERN PR IS FORECAST
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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