855
FXCA20 KWBC 191849
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT WED APR 19 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 18 APR 2023 AT 1740 UTC: OF NOTE...THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF A
DIVERGENT MJO PHASE...ACCORDING TO THE CICS CFS TROPICAL
MONITORING FORECAST. IN ADDITION...TWO ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES
ARE ADVANCING OVER THE AREA...ONE LEAVING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
BRAZIL INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST
ADVANCING OVER MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA FROM
THE PACIFIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
ASSIST WITH LARGER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE AREAS THAT WILL
SEE RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
INTO NORTHERN CUBA...WHERE IT WESTERN MOST PORTION BECOMES
STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH FAVORING WILL HAVE FAVORING LIFT DUE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH
FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AROUND 26N 68W. TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FAVORS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY...RETURNING TO NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AND ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. TODAY...THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS A CHANCE OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP TO
10MM. PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL HAVE A BIT MORE
RAIN WITH TOTALS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA UP TO 15MM...WHILE
HAITI COULD OBSERVE MUCH MORE RAIN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE AREA THAT COULD CAUSE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 25-50MM.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND CENTRAL CUBA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMA UP TO
15MM. JAMAICA COULD SEE SOME PERSISTENT DOWNWIND SHOWERS FROM
HAITI...CAUSING 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.THURSDAY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA UP TO 10MM FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM...WHILE THE BAHAMAS WILL BE SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN
HALF HAVING 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OBSERVING 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. JAMAICA IS
FORECAST TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP TO 15MM.
FRIDAY...MOST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTH HAITI ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF 10-25MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA AND FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
WHILE PUERTO RICO...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE FORECAST A GENERALIZED AMOUNT OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15-20MM.
OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO A LESSER
DEGREE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAVE MOVED EASTWARD.
WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN EASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNDER 30 TO 25MM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
TODAY...NORTHERN COAHUILA IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15MM...PORTIONS OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...AND PUEBLA ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-35MM...WHILE
SOUTHEASTERN CHIAPAS...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR...05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THURSDAY...CENTRAL
COAHUILA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
10MM...PORTIONS OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...AND THROUGH
PUEBLA...TLAXCALA INTO HIDALGO ARE FORECAST TO HAVE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE SOUTHEASTERN CHIAPAS...SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY
FRIDAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR
NORTHERN NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS WITH 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 15-30MM. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...AND THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA ARE FORECAST 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EACH DAY WILL PRESENT A CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST RAINFALL EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT EVERY DAY THERE ARE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN TODAY AND THURSDAY...THROUGH
FRIDAY POSES A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF VENEZUELA. THAT
SAID...FOR THE REST OF TODAY...NORTHERN BRAZIL INTO THE GUIANAS IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE A
PORTION OF FRENCH GUIANA AND THE BRAZILIAN STATE OF AMAPA IS
FORECAST TO OBSERVE A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. MOST OF COLOMBIA IS
FORECAST 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-35MM...WHILE MOST OF
ECUADOR...NORTHERN PERU AND SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA
AND NORTHWESTERN ECUADOR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 20-40MM/DAY WITH A
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY FOR
THEM. THAT SAID...OTHER PARTS OF COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF AS WELL AS NORTHERN PERU...INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST TIP
OF VENEZUELA WHICH BORDERS BRAZIL... COULD OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VENEZUELA WILL HAVE LESS RAIN...05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE BRAZILIAN STATES OF PARA AND AMAPA AS WELL
AS THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE BRAZILIAN STATES
OF RORAIMA AND AMAZONAS WILL SEE AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 50-100MM...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING
HIGHER AMOUNTS. FROM THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA TO
EASTERN AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 40-80MM...WHILE WESTERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTH AND CENTRAL ECUADOR ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. THE GUIANAS AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO NORTHERN PERU ARE FORECAST GENERAL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. WHILE ELSEWHERE IN
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM COULD BE OBSERVED.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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