384
FXCA20 KWBC 201840
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT THU APR 20 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 20 APR 2023 AT 1840 UTC: OF NOTE...THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF
A DIVERGENT MJO PHASE...ACCORDING TO THE CICS CFS TROPICAL
MONITORING FORECAST. IN ADDITION...AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS
APPROACHING MEXICO FROM THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO ASSIST
WITH LARGER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE
RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THEN
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
AROUND 30N/60W. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BE
ASSISTED BY THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES. BY
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AROUND 26N 68W.
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
REST OF THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND CAUSES DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN LATER ON FRIDAY AND PEAKING ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WHEN IT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO. THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST TO
HAVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP TO 10MM OF RAIN. THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL HAVE A BIT MORE RAIN WITH TOTALS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA UP TO 15MM...WHILE HAITI AND NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC COULD OBSERVE MUCH MORE RAIN DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE AREA THAT COULD CAUSE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 20-35MM
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. CUBA HAS A CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 20-45MM.
JAMAICA COULD SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
FRIDAY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA UP TO
15MM FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTH HAITI ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE THE
LARGEST AMOUNTS OF 10-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA ARE FORECAST TO
OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...PUERTO
RICO...THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 05/10,,/DAY WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-25MM.
SOUTHERN CUBA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAX
OF 15MM.
OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVE WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS COULD BE OBSERVED OVER TAMAULIPAS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNDER 25MM TODAY...THOUGH TAMAULIPAS COULD TOTALS
BETWEEN 20-40MM ON FRIDAY. TODAY...CENTRAL COAHUILA IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 10MM...PORTIONS OF
OAXACA...GUERRERO...AND THROUGH PUEBLA...TLAXCALA INTO HIDALGO ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE
SOUTHEASTERN CHIAPAS...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR...00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 10MM. BY FRIDAY...THE
LARGEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NUEVO
LEON AND TAMAULIPAS WITH 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-40MM WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONG STORMS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...AND THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA ARE FORECAST
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE SAME AREAS
FROM OAXACA/GUERRERO NORTH TO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS ARE FORECAST TO
OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX OF 15-25MM. SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR WILL OBSERVE UP TO 15MM AND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX UP TO 25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DUE TO A KELVIN WAVE PASSING
THROUGH...EACH DAY WILL PRESENT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST RAINFALL
EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT EVERY DAY THERE ARE SHOWERS A THE GUIANAS
ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...INTO NORTHERN BRAZIL WILL OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-20MM. MOST OF
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND NORTHWESTERN PERU ARE FORECAST
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN
PERU...SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF
BRAZIL...COULD OBSERVE 20-40MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 50-100MM.
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE BRAZILIAN STATES OF RORAIMA
AND AMAZONAS WILL SEE AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
50-100MM...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FROM THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 40-80MM...WHILE WESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTH AND CENTRAL ECUADOR
ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. THE GUIANAS
AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO NORTHERN
PERU ARE FORECAST GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-45MM. WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM COULD BE OBSERVED.
SATURDAY HAS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FURTHER EAST. AREAS OF
NORTHERN VENEZUELA INTO THE GUIANAS ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
BETWEEN 15-20MM WITH MAX TOTALS BETWEEN 30 AND 80MM. THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PARA STATE IN BRAZIL IS FORECAST TO HAVE 20-40MM
WITH MAXIMA BETWEEN 75-125MM. THEN FROM ECUADOR TO WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...THE RAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST...WITH
05-10MM/DAY AND MAX OF 15-25MM EXPECTED.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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