073
FXCA20 KWBC 281230
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT FRI APR 28 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM APR
28/12UTC: THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS PR/USVI IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS MOVING IN. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OVER
PR. GIVEN THE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES THAT COULD RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 THIS MORNING TO 1.9
INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION COULD
PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY. SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN IS
FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST DAY AS THE MOISTURE INCREASE AND
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SINCE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...THE CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS COULD AFFECT AREAS
AS FAR EAST AS THE SAN JUAN METRO AND EASTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT
MAXIMA OF OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN ALONG THE CORDILLERA...WHILE IN THE
SAN JUAN METRO EXPECT GENERALLY 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE WEEKEND...CENTERING OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BY
SUNDAY. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE UNFAVORABLE MJO...WILL
LIKELY FAVOR A DRYING TREND FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PR...FAVORING
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PREFERENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT FOR CONVECTION IS DUE TO A
REORGANIZATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A GRADUAL ACCELERATION AND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL CLUSTER IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO ON SATURDAY AS WELL...CAUSING MAXIMAS OF AROUND AN INCH OR
SLIGHTLY LESS. ON SUNDAY ONWARD...THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR
COULD OBSERVE MAXIMA OF ABOUT A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN...THOUGH
TUESDAY WOULD BE MUCH DRIER AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. ACROSS THE USVI...SCATTERED SHOWERS ON A DAILY
BASIS...LEADING TO DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO JUST UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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