625
FXUS01 KWBC 301948
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2023
VALID 00Z MON MAY 01 2023 - 00Z WED MAY 03 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-DURATION HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT EXPECTED FOR
THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY...
...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SPREADS INTO THE WEST COAST, WHILE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SWING FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE START OF MAY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
EAST COAST. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM USHERS IN A PLENTIFUL AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH, URBAN, AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS OVERNIGHT RESIDE OVER PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN MAINE, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO, CANADA ON MONDAY, BREEZY, COOL, AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER UPSLOPE
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS EXPERIENCING
AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
SPEAKING OF SNOW, A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWFALL EVENT HAS BEGUN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SUPPLYING PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL BURSTS
OF HEAVY-WET SNOW THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.P. OF MICHIGAN
AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY
ACCUMULATED THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW MORE FEET OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. SNOW LOAD AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.
OTHER WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POWERFUL EASTERN
U.S. SPRING STORM INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
MINNESOTA TO WESTERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE, THE CORE OF THE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH OUT OF THE 40S IN THIS REGION (20+ DEGREES
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE DATE).
FOR THE WESTERN U.S., A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE WEST COAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES, ALONG WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INLAND, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH WARM WEATHER ALSO SPREADING INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. REGIONS
EXPERIENCING RIVER FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN CAN EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT INTO THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AS WELL.
SNELL
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