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FXCA20 KWBC 011234
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
834 AM EDT MON MAY 01 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
01/12UTC: THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS PR/USVI IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR ONE INCH ON
THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO 1.3 INCHES ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND MEANDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
STARTING LATE TUESDAY ONWARD. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...THEN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL WINDS TO HAVE A
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING LOCALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR EACH
AFTERNOON...WHILE BRIEF SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
PR AND THE USVI. IN THE MID LEVELS... A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...THEN A BROAD TROUGH
WILL BE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY...AND WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER PR ON
FRIDAY.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING...COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR EACH AFTERNOON. SINCE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT TUESDAY WILL
HAVE MORE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR THAN TODAY
OR WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MAXIMA OF
UNDER 1 INCH TODAY...BUT COULD EXCEED 1.5 INCHES ON TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
MOISTURE DECREASES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL
FORECAST SUGGESTS JUST UNDER 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PR...WHILE EASTERN PR COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.75 AND
1.0 INCHES. THE USVI...BEING LIMITED MOSTLY TO BRIEF SHOWERS THIS
WEEK...ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A 5-DAY TOTAL OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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