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FXCA20 KWBC 021227
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
826 AM EDT TUE MAY 02 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
02/12UTC: THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS PR/USVI IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE PEAK
MOISTURE OCCURRING TODAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE THIS
MORNING IS NEAR 1.3 INCHES...BUT MAY INCREASE TO 1.75 BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.5 FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...MEANDERING ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...THEN A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHEAST US INTO
THE ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THE NORTHEAST US ON THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE
LOCAL WINDS TO HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK...CAUSING LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR EACH AFTERNOON...WHILE BRIEF SHOWERS
WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. IN THE MID
LEVELS... A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...HAVING ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SUGGESTING YESTERDAY.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY...WITH OVER ONE INCH OF
RAIN BEING FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
MID LEVELS...THE EXPECTED MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING...COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER TODAY...REMAINING MAINLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW
BRIEF MOMENTS OF NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL EFFECTS
WILL CAUSE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PR. ELSEWHERE...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A MAXIMA OF JUST UNDER 1
INCH...AGAIN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WHILE IN
GENERAL...DAILY MAXIMA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL FORECAST IS
JUST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR...WHILE
EASTERN PR COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.75 INCHES. THE USVI...BEING
LIMITED MOSTLY TO BRIEF SHOWERS THIS WEEK...ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A
5-DAY TOTAL OF A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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