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FXCA20 KWBC 031235
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
835 AM EDT WED MAY 03 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
03/12UTC: THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL WITH THE FORECAST IN THE
SHORT TERM. THEREFORE...AS EXPECTED...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL START GRADUALLY DECREASING
TODAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DECREASE FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES TONIGHT...REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
UNTIL FRIDAY WHERE IT INCREASES GRADUALLY TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS ENTERED THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
US ON THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL WINDS TO
PERSIST WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT
SAID...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN WITH A SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT...MOSTLY DRIVEN FROM THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOCALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR EACH
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE BRIEF SHOWERS WOULD BE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. IN THE MID LEVELS... A
WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TODAY...THEN A BROAD TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TODAY...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...HAVING
ITS AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY...MOVING EAST WITH
ITS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RAINIEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT 5
DAYS...WITH PERHAPS JUST UNDER ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. EVEN THOUGH
MOISTURE IS DECREASING...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO CAUSE MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. EVERY OTHER DAY
THE LIMITED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
CAUSE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PR. ELSEWHERE...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN FORECAST ON THURSDAY
WILL HAVE A MAXIMA OF JUST OVER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WHILE IN GENERAL...DAILY MAXIMA FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A HALF AN INCH. THE 5-DAY
RAIN TOTAL FORECAST IS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PR...WHILE EASTERN PR COULD OBSERVE NEAR 0.50 INCHES.
THE USVI...BEING LIMITED MOSTLY TO BRIEF SHOWERS THIS WEEK...ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A 5-DAY TOTAL OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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