582
FXUS01 KWBC 040728
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT THU MAY 04 2023
VALID 12Z THU MAY 04 2023 - 12Z SAT MAY 06 2023
...BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY...
...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO SPREAD INLAND, ENCOMPASSING ALL
AREAS WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY...
...SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY, BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AS AN UPPER-LOW
SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S, ALBEIT A TAD WARMER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THE COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS
THE UPPER-LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S REGIONWIDE. MOREOVER, WITH
HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, THE DAMP CONDITIONS
WILL COME TO AN END, LEADING TO SOME POSSIBLE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TO
USHER IN THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE LOWER 48, AN UPPER-LOW CHURNING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE HAS LED TO A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CALIFORNIA,
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION, AND THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY,
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES APPROACHING 15-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, THEY WILL SPREAD INLAND, ENCOMPASSING ALL AREAS WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXPERIENCE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD DAYTIME HIGHS
APPROACHING THE 70S AND 80S, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
FURTHERMORE, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING HIGH-ELEVATION MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW, ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A BROAD SWATH OF 0.5 - 1"+ 48-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGHOUT
WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND IDAHO, IN ADDITION TO SNOWMELT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO RECENT ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES IN NEARBY STREAMS
AND RIVERS.
SHIFTING EASTWARD, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH WILL PRODUCE HEIGHTENED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
SURFACE LOW FORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY
THURSDAY HOURS, WARM, MOIST AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD BEHIND A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE A
DRYLINE DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, ALLOWING FOR THE INITIATION
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3" PER HOUR EMBEDDED IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS AS LOCALIZED AREAS, INCLUDING THE
ARKLATEX REGION, CONTINUE TO HAVE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SOILS DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. AS THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HOISTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
RUSSELL
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