036
FXCA20 KWBC 051824
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 05 MAY 2023 AT 1830 UTC: NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ON THE FORECAST ACROSS MEXICO...WHERE UPPER
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW...SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE HIGHLIGHTING DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND EASTERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENT
PATTERN...WHEN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL
PORTIONF OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU.
TO THE EAST...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS
IS...YET...COINCIDING WITH THE UPPER CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO
AND A PERIOD OF ACCELERATED TRADES IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN. THUS...THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN THESE REGIONS ARE LIMITED. NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD VERY SLOWLY. BY FRIDAY EVENING
IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO NASSAU...NEW
PROVIDENCE. BY SATURDAY EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO ANDROS ISLAND...BY SUNDAY EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ANDJUST SOUTH OF ANDROS
ISLAND. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THI SYSTEM BY FRIDAY
EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA. BY
SATURDAY EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA...WESTERN HAITIAN PENINSULA INTO JAMAICA...TO THEN
LOOSE DEFINITION. INITIALLY...EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN THE
BAHAMAS...BUT DESTABILIZATION BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR LOCAL
INCREASES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 15MM. ON
SUNDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE SHEAR LINE WILL ALSO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION IN IN HISPANIOLA ON DA DAILY BASIS...AND IN JAMAICA
TO A LESSER EXTENT. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN HISPANIOLA AND 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM IN JAMAICA. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE HAITI AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN PUERTO RICO...A MOIST PLUME MOVING FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. THE NEXT PERIOD WITH ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS ON MONDAY TO TUESDAY...WHERE EXPECT MODERATE
AMOUNTS.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS ENTERING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO CENTER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT EXTEND OVER ALL
OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE.
AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ON ONE
HAND...A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING FROM COLOMBIA/ECUADOR INTO THE GUIANAS FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS...TROPICAL
WAVES ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GUIANAS ON FRIDAY...ACROSS EASTERN
VENEZUELA ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL VENEZUELA/EXTREME EASTERN COLOMBIA
BY SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE TRAILS BEHIND...AND IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE INTO THE GUIANAS ON SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MODERATE
CONVECTION IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AMAZON AND IN THE PACIFIC
BASIN OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA. IN ECUADOR EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-75MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN BRASIL. ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND THE WESTERN
AMAZON EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ALSO ON
FRIDAY...ITCZ CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN AMAPA/EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA...WHILE THE EASTERLY WAVE
FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SURINAME/WESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. ON
SATURDAY... EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST ECUADOR. ELSWHERE IN THE WESTERN AMAZON INTO
CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE
EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
EASTERN VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS. ON SUNDAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. WEST
ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NET AND
EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST
SIUTH AMERICA...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
15-25MM IN MAXIMA.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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