467
FXUS01 KWBC 070800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT SUN MAY 07 2023
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 07 2023 - 12Z TUE MAY 09 2023
...HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEK...
...BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST...
...DRY CONDITIONS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE EAST AS THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION ON MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST. PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH WARM, MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ARE BOTH HELPING TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. A
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING SEVERE WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, AS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OFF OF A STRONG
DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE ARE
SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN EFFECT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BRING SEVERE WIND AND ISOLATED
REGIONS OF LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THESE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA
AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY BASED
ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, BUT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORTS
ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S DURING THE EARLY-WEEK ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH IS 10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE.
IN THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW-AVERAGE
TO START OUT THIS WEEK AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, OREGON, AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL BE 10-15F BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH 60S & 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION TO
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL
AS SNOW, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, OREGON, IDAHO, WESTERN MONTANA, AND WESTERN WYOMING.
IN THE EAST, DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION, HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND INTO THE AREAS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NON-SEVERE, A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5) EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STORMY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS,
AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF WAVE OF
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN A LOCALIZED REGION ENCOMPASSING
THE COASTAL NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEK FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S EARLY THIS
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
GENZ
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