909
FXUS01 KWBC 080745
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EDT MON MAY 08 2023
VALID 12Z MON MAY 08 2023 - 12Z WED MAY 10 2023
...SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...
...MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ANTICIPATED ON
TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IN PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND & SOUTH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK; THE NORTHEAST COOLS OFF ON TUESDAY, THE WEST
COAST STAYS COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK...
A STORMY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS ON TAP FROM THE NATION'S
HEARTLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS FEED
OFF A STEADY FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. FOR MONDAY, THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONSOLIDATE FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 2) FOR
SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) FOR PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS, WITH THE BETTER ODDS FOR
TORNADOES OCCURRING FROM THE OZARKS TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH NO SHORTAGE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH TEXAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ALL COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) DOES MARGINAL
RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 1) FOR THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, INCLUDING A
SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2) FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI-OHIO RIVER CONFLUENCE.
BY TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND CAROLINAS, SETTING UP THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS TO BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE SPC HAS AN
ELONGATED MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1) STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN SOUTHERN KANSAS, NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2) IS IN
PLACE. IT IS HERE WHERE BOTH A STALLING FRONT AND THE DRYLINE WILL
BE THE CATALYSTS FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST, THE CAROLINAS WILL ALSO BE AT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS, HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK IN EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. IN TERMS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OUT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS, WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS WELL. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DOWNPOURS IN THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, BUT FASTER STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT BETTER THAN IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND RICH
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO DEVELOPING STORMS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL WILL
BE MOST COMMONLY FOUND IN THE NATION'S HEARTLAND AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JUNE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS RANGE
BETWEEN 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS EQUATES TO A FOOTPRINT OF
90 DEGREE HIGHS DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS ON MONDAY, WITH SOME 90
DEGREE TEMPS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES, DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS, AND GUSTY
WINDS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DAILY
MINIMUM TEMPS WILL ALSO BE QUITE ABNORMALLY WARM FOR EARLY MAY NOT
JUST IN THE SOUTH AND THE HEARTLAND, BUT PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY. SPEAKING OF THE NORTHEAST, PASSING COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL USHER IN A TASTE OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, CAPPING MOST DAYTIME HIGHS FROM REACH 70
DEGREES FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA ON NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND. THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AS COOL
AS 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, IN THE GREAT
BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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