648
FXCA20 KWBC 081221
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
821 AM EDT MON MAY 08 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
08/12UTC: A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES BEING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHILE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS INTO 60W AND NORTH OF 20-22N. IN THE MEAN TIME...A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS CONNECT WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE CELL THAT
VENTERS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ARE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE ORDER OF 15-18KT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE...AS VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35MM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHALLOW TRADE WIND CUMULUS ACROSS THE VI AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WHILE THE RADAR CONFIRMS LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VERY ISOLATED
REGIONS WITH SHOWERS NORTH OF SAINT CROIX AND IN INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BELOW-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES UNDER THE UPPER
CONVERGENT TIER OF THE MJO. FURTHERMORE...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGES OCCURRING IN
THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY BY THE MID-WEEK...THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGES WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING MOST OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL CLUSTER REGIONS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON A DAILY BASIS.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO. A MOIST PLUME PROPAGATING ACROSS THE EASTERN VI WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL...LEADING TO MAXIMA OF
0.2-0.3 INCHES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ONCE AGAIN MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5
INCHES IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...WHILE LATE NIGHT/MORNING
CONVECTION FAVORS MAXIMA NEAR 0.2 INCHES IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.6
INCHES IN THE WESTERN CORDILLERA AND IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO THEN ACQUIRE A
STRONGER EASTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL REACTIVATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CORDILLERA ON THURSDAY...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 0.4-0.7 INCHES. ON FRIDAY...A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE ISLANDS FROM EAST TO
WEST...TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA TO 0.5-0.8 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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