288
FXCA20 KWBC 081718
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 PM EDT MON MAY 08 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 08 MAY 2023 AT 1720 UTC: UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-UPPER WESTERLY FLOW OVER MEXICO...MOISTURE
CONTINUES CLUSTERED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE CYCLE. INITIALLY/ON MONDAY...A
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL
FAVOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM AND A RISK FOR SEVERITY. ALSO ON
MONDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM
TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON INTO NORTHERN VERACRUZ/HIDALGO. ON
TUESDAY...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CLUSTER IN
OAXACA/PUEBLA AND CHIAPAS...IN THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
REMAINING INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON A
DAILY BASIS ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AND MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER
15-20MM.
A BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO LONGITUDES NEAR 60W. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...YIELDING TO ZONAL FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A FRONT IS WEAKENING WHILE STILL
REMAINING STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON MONDAY. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NORTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE FROM LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE BAHAMAS ON MONDAY...VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACCELERATED THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO ROLL NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON MONDAY INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOST OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED LARGER
AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE CYCLE. ON MONDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND GENERALLY MAXIMA OF
15MM IN JAMAICA...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON
TUESDAY...THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. IN HISPANIOLA EXPECT STILL 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA. IN JAMAICA...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...GENERALIZED DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY...AS AN EASTERLY
AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVE FROM THE EAST WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES LESS CONVERGENT IN THE LARGE SCALE. STILL...PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BELOW THE NORMALS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS EASTERN
GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN WESTERN PANAMA/EASTERN COSTA
RICA AND IN THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN WESTERN PANAMA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA...WHILE IN
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM
WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE. IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WETTER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN ACTIVATION OF EASTERLY WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC ITCZ. THIS INCLUDES THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY
AND A TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW). FURTHERMORE...A SOUTHERLY SURGE
ALONG WESTERN PERU/ECUADOR/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY WILL
HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM FROM THE ORIENTE
ECUATORIANO INTO CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLOMBIA/WESTERN VENEZUELA...THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE NET AND THE
WANING SURGE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE UP MOSTLY ALONG
THE NET FROM THE GUIANAS INTO ARAUCA AND THE SANTANDERES IN
COLOMBIA. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ACROSS
THE GUIANAS INTO RORAIMA...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
FROM SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO MOST OF EASTERN COLOMBIA AND
ARAUCA/APURE.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00
EW 10N 41W 44W 47W 50W 54W 57W 60W 63W
TW 13N 61W 63W 66W 70W 73W 77W 80W 84W
EW 16N 74W 76W 78W 81W 83W 84W 86W 88W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS ORGANIZING ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ NEAR 41W.
THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO THE GUIANAS ON WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GUIANAS WHERE...IN
INTERACTION WITH THE NET...IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN GUIANAS ON
MONDAY. THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM IN SURINAME...GUYANA AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. IN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND IN NORTHWEST BRASIL IT WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
VENEZUELA...NORTHEAST COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF THE MAGDALENA
MEDIO. ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. BY WEDNESDAY THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLOMBIA.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 74W AND WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
WESTERN PANAMA/EASTERN COSTA RICA AND IN SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN WESTERN PANAMA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA. IN
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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