831
FXCA20 KWBC 091837
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 09 MAY 2023 AT 1840 UTC: MID-UPPER WESTERLY
FLOW IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND EASTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. A DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST MEXICO...WHERE EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION
OCCURRING IN AN ISOLATED MANNER. THE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN OAXACA/PUEBLA AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...WHERE EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
TO THE EAST...FRONTS REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
INITIALLY...A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. YET...THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY
REORGANIZING AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENF
ALONG 24N INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DESTABILIZATION WHILE
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY.
TO THE EAST...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF
WAVES IN THE TRADES. SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE HOWEVER FORECAST
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...TO INTERACT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE GREATER ANTILLES.
INITIALLY/ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
CENTRAL CUBA AND MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 15MM IN NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA. THIS INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS IN
HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A FURTHER INCREASE IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA...WHERE EXPEC T 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHER
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO...BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLUSTER IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND PRODUCE
CONSERVATIVE ACCUMULATIONS. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEKEND.
AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT TROPICAL WAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION
(SEE BELOW FOR POSITIONS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS WILL FAVOR A
TRANSITION FROM VERY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRIMARILY FROM WESTERN
NICARAGUA/CENTRAL HONDURAS WEST INTO GUATEMALA/BELIZE...CHIAPAS
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COSTA RICA WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY.
CONVECTION ALONG THE NET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. A SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE ORIENTE
ECUATORIANI WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FURTHERMORE ON TUESDAY...TO FAVOR MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN MOST OF
CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO THE WESTERN VENEZUELAN LLANOS. ALONG THE NET
IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...SOUTHERN GUYANA AND NORTHERN BRASIL EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ITCZ CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA. ON WEDNESDAY...A MOIST
PLUME ALONG THE NET WILL INTERACT WITH THE WAINING SOUTHERLY SURGE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA TO TRIGGER
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND THE EJE
CAFETERO EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE IN THE
GUIANAS...THE NET AND AN EASTERN WAVE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE
ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE EASTERLY WAVE AND THE NET WILL
STILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE GUIANAS AND
RORAIMA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00
EW 10N 47W 50W 53W 56W 58W 60W 62W 64W
TW 13N 66W 70W 73W 76W 78W 80W 82W 85W
EW 16N 78W 80W 83W 85W 87W 90W 93W 95W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 47W AND IS EXPECTED TO GAIN
DEFINITION AS IT PROPAGATES WESTWARD. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE GUIANAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INIAILIZED AT 66W AND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND MOST OF
COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST/CENTRAL
COLOMBIA. IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE
EJE CAFETERO/WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO THE SANTANDERES...15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN THE WESTERN ORINOQUIA. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PANAMA.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN/PANAMA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...YET...IT WILL
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA ON TUESDAY
WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA AS WELL AS IN WESTERN
HONDURAS/NORTHERN EL SALVADOR. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE IN GUATEMALA./..NORTHERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND
THE GUYLF OF FONSECA REGION/NORTHWEST NICARAGUA. IN THE REST OF
HONDURAS...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOILATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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