521
FXUS01 KWBC 091955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2023
VALID 00Z WED MAY 10 2023 - 00Z FRI MAY 12 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTHWEST...
...WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE ACTIVE PATTERN
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHER WEST, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES, RESULTING IN LIKELY INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO AREAS
INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS TRIANGLE, WHICH INCLUDES THE
ENTIRE HOUSTON METRO REGION. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA DUE TO THE EVENTUAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO FURTHER
HIGHLIGHT THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN, A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS THROUGHOUT
THIS REGION ARE ADVISED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE WITHIN A FLOOD-PRONE REGION. AS ALWAYS, BE
SURE TO NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY AND HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
LOOKING NORTHWARD, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MULTITUDE OF
WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS KANSAS
AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EMBEDDED
IN THESE STORMS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.
AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE
AN OVERLAPPING SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH AREAS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AT WORK,
WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-3" ACROSS
EASTERN WYOMING, SOUTHEAST MONTANA, AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEING HOISTED FOR THESE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN ON BOTH
DAYS, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN COLORADO AND ATTENDANT DRYLINE
BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRACK INTO KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MEANWHILE, ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM, STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 80S, WITH PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
REMAINING IN THE 70S.
RUSSELL/SNELL
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