159
FXCA20 KWBC 111855
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2023
NOTE: THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
MEXICO STARTING ON FRIDAY BUT PEAKING ON SATURDAY...AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL JET AND A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON FRIDAY...INCREASING TO 75-150MM ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT THIS RISK EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 150-300MM IN
REGIONS ALONG THE RIO BRAVO ACCUMULATING IN THREE DAYS...FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 11 MAY 2023 AT 1900 UTC: THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN MEXICO IS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH...FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST PLUME BREWING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL TO PRODUCE
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY...WHEN 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
TOT THE EAST...FRONTS CONTINUE ACTIVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. ON
THURSDAY EVENING...A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO ANDROS ISLAND. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER FRONT IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
START DISSIPATING ACROSS EXUMA/NEW PROVIDENCE/BIMINI BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
FRONT. ON SATURDAY EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...INAGUA INTO SOUTHEAST CUBA.
BY FRIDAY EVENING IT WILL EXTEND INTO HISPANIOLA TO THEN
DISSIPATE. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SHEAR LINE IS
FORECAST TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTHEAST
CUBA ON THURSDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.
ALSO OF INTEREST IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...A CLOSED UPPER LOW
IS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...AND IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE TROPOSPHERE OVER CUBA TO ENHANCE
VENTILATION...FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION
AND A RISK FOR SEVERITY ON THURSDAY...EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA WITH A RISK FOR SEVERITY. MODERATE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN EASTERN CUBA TO FAVOR MAXIMA 25-50MM ON THURSDAY AND
20-45MM ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN CENTRAL
CUBA WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...WHILE AN INDUCED TROUGH
FAVORS MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
JAMAICA.
THE INCREASING TREND IN CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES. THIS IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY AND TROPICAL WAVES. IN SOUTH
AMERICA...ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE ACTIVATION OF WAVES IN THE TRADES. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ALONG THE NET AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING FROM THE GUIANAS ON THURSDAY...INTO
COLOMBIA BY SATURDAY (SEE BELOW FOR POSITIONS AND ACCUMULATIONS IN
BOTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA).
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00
TW 10N 33W 36W 39W 42W 45W 48W 51W 54W
EW 12N 57W 60W 62W 65W 67W 70W 74W 77W
TW 16N 78W 80W 82W 85W 88W 91W 93W 96W
EW 17N 87W 89W 91W 93W DISS --- --- ---
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 33W AND SOUTH OF 10N. THIS
WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN FRENCH GUIANA/AMAPA LATE ON SATURDAY.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 57W AND SOUTH OF 12N AND
PROPAGATE WEST OVER THE GUIANAS ON THURSDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM FRENCH
GUIANA INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY...IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND
RORAIMA. IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NORTHEAST
COLOMBIA...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COLOMBIA AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 78W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N AND
IS FORECAST TO PUSH WEST INTO CENTRAL PANAMA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS AREA IS FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN HONDURAS/NORTHERN EL
SALVADOR AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. TRAILING MOISTURE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM EASTERN COSTA RICA INTO EASTERN
HONDURAS. ON SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM
WESTERN HONDURAS INTO WESTERN GUATEMALA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 87W SOUTH OF 17N. ON THURSDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE
GULF OF FONSECA REGION...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM CHIAPAS INTO
NORTHERN HONDURAS. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...YET TO STILL PRODUCE MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS/TABASCO.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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