382
FXUS01 KWBC 121906
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EDT FRI MAY 12 2023
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 13 2023 - 00Z MON MAY 15 2023
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TO RECORD HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...
AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MID SECTION
OF THE NATION THIS MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. TWO STRONG, WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION. INITIALLY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS AHEAD OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHICH WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM EASTERN MONTANA, ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS, NORTHERN NEBRASKA, IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA, SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, ACROSS
IOWA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. ACROSS THESE REGIONS HIGH
WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, ANOTHER WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE FORMING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERN TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS, OKLAHOMA,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING, THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BRING RELIEF TO THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME/EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. IN THE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN LIMITED SUNSHINE POTENTIAL,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
IN CONTRAST TO THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
STRENGTHENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE REGIONS EXPECTED TO
BE FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
LARGEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE WHERE BOTH RECORD HIGH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RECORD HIGH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THIS EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS AREAS
TO THE WEST OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALSO LIKELY ACROSS AREAS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT AS 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, NO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM BOSTON TO WASHINGTON D.C.
SATURDAY MORNING.
ORAVEC
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page