967
FXUS01 KWBC 160738
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 16 2023 - 12Z THU MAY 18 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...
...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WEST; EAST COAST
COOLS DOWN....
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL GENERATE MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST TODAY. FIRST, A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AROUND THIS BOUNDARY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS AND RAINFALL WILL FOCUS AROUND THE SURFACE WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TODAY.
THEREFORE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE,
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE'S
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AIDED BY
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN COULD BE A RECIPE FOR INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER SATURATED SOILS.
SECOND, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME LOW MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A
RESULT.
A LARGE EAST-PACIFIC TROUGH AND BUILDING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND ACROSS THE WEST
THIS WEEK. WARM AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
INLAND AREAS AND THE GREAT BASIN BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTHERN TIER STATES TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR
BROKEN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT AS TEMPS FAIL TO
DROP BELOW THE MID 50S. THINGS BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN OVER THE PAC
NW ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S, REPRESENTING 15-25
DEGREE ANOMALIES. THE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD BREAKING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK IN THE WEST.
KEBEDE
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