530
FXCA20 KWBC 161149
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 15 MAY 2023 AT 1800 UTC: IN MEXICO...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AND IS EXPECTED TO VENTILATE CONVECTION ALONG ITS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL FAVOR MODERATE CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM NORTHERN NUEVO
LEON/TAMAULIPAS INTO MOST OF COAHUILA. IN CHIHUAHUA/DURANGO EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL FROM NUEVO LEON TO NORTHERN VERACRUZ EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHEAST MEXICO. AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE
THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON A DAILY BASIS...TO PRODUCE
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM BETWEEN THE EJE VOLCANICO
CENTRAL INTO OAXACA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THEREAFTER.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON
MONDAY...AND IS INDUCING A TROUGH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND
STIMULATING CONVECTION IN AREAS EAST OF THIS INDUCED TROUGH. THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE UPPER WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH...YIELDING TO A DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STIMULATE CONVECTION CUBA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...WHILE ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHWEST
JAMAICA...SOUTHEAST CUBA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. IN
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH THE INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA. THIS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
OVER JAMAICA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NORTHWEST CUBA EXPECT
MAXIMA UNDER 15MM. IN HISPANIOLA...ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS DECREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS IN JAMAICA. IN NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN AREAS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH...ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD YET WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL YIELD TO
CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND VERY DISCRETE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATING CONVECTION.
A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER EASTWARD WHILE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. INITIALLY...HOWEVER...THE DESTABILIZATION PRODUCED BY
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA/NORTHWEST COLOMBIA REGION...IN INTERACTION WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE. ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE ITCZ TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WHERE IN COMBINATION WITH THE EASTERLY
WAVE...IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...WESTERN PANAMA AND IN WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA.
IN CENTRAL PANAMA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE REGION
THEREAFTER. ON TUESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
THE EJE CAFETERO...DECREASING AFTER.
TO THE WEST...IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL BE PARTLY
MODULATED BY WAVES IN THE TRADES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROMINENT ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ENHANCED SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS WITH RESPECT TO LAST WEEK'S. YET...A TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA...ALONG THE ITCZ...IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM
COSTA RICA INTO THE EL SALVADOR REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE INFLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASE
IN ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY WHEN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOSTLY MODULATED BY WAVES IN THE TRADES. SEE BELOW FOR
POSITIONS AND ACCUMULATION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00
TW 11N 57W 60W 63W 65W 67W 70W 73W 76W
EW 20N 78W 80W 81W 82W 83W 85W 86W 88W
TW 17N 98W 100W 102W 106W 110W 113W EXIT
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 57W AND SOUTH OF 11N. THE WAVE
IS LOCATED BETWEEN GUYANA AND VENEZUELA BY MONDAY EVENING AND WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM OVER MOST OF GUYANA INTO SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA AND RORAIMA ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA BY THE EVENING...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...RORAIMA...AND NORTHERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. BY WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 78W AND SOUTH OF 20N AND IT IS
FORECAST FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND INTO CENTRAL PANAMA BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
15-30MM IN THESE REGIONS...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
JAMAICA...NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN COSTA RICA AND
WESTERN PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN HONDURAS. ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
COSTA RICA AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 98W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH LIMITED EFFECTS ON CONTINENTAL REGIONS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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