860
FXCA20 KWBC 161803
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 16 MAY 2023 AT 1800 UTC: A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERS OVER COAHUILA...AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING. STILL...IT WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION IN NORTHER COAHUILA ON TUESDAY. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED IN NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE TO
DECREASE THEREAFTER. A LARGER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST...TO CENTER ON AN UPPERLOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUTH THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME ASCENT...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL FAVOR A
DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTH-WEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CLUSTER ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL AND PORTIONS
OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT AMOUNTS IN
THE 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM RANGE...ALTHOUGH
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN OAXACA ON WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...A
BROAD CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN THE FORCING OF
UPPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING IN THE WESTERLIES. NEVERTHELESS...A
MOIST POOL IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL FAVOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE GREATER ANTILLES ON A DAILY
BASIS...FORECAST TO BE THE MOST PROMINENT IN PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. ON TUESDAY...THE BASE OF THE LIFTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL STIMULATE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...INCLUDING MODERATE WIND GUSTS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE IN JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 15MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTHEAST CUBA...WHILE IN CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. A MOIST PLUME IN
PUERTO RICO WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM MOST OF
HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN WESTERN HAITI...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMNAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/ABC
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL FAVOR A DECREASING TREND IN
ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING
PRIMARILY WITH WAVES IN THE TRADES. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA AND IN HONDURAS/NORTHWEST
NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY...FORECAST IN THE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM RANGE. THIS WILL DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA IN THE 15-20MM RANGE...MOSTLY CLUSTERING IN THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS OF AN
ORGANIZING RIDGE SUGGEST ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ORGANIZE WITH WAVES
IN THE TRADES (SEE BELOW). ON TUESDAY...STRONG CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
FAVORS 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. ACTIVE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO CLUSTER IN
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN BRASIL WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. AFTER
TUESDAY...THE MOST ACTIVE WILL GENERALLY CLUSTER ACROSS THE
GUIANAS ON A DAILY BASIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NET. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A SURGE IN
LOW LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE PACIFIC BASIN ON THURSDAY WILL FAVOR
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12 20/00
TW 13N 63W 65W 68W 71W 74W 76W 79W 81W
EW 18N 81W 83W 84W 85W 87W 89W 91W 93W
TW 17N 102W 103W 110W 115W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 63W AND SOUTH OF 13N. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...INTO
RORAIMA AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL. ON WEDNESDAY...IT MOVES TOWARDS
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EAST/SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
ANDEAN REGION INTO THE PACIFIC BASINS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.
WESTERN ONSHORE FLOW WILL ASSIST IN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
ECUADOR WITH MAXIMA FORECAST OF 50-100MM...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND EASTERN ECUADOR/NORTHERN PERU EXPECT MAXIMA
GENERALLY UNDER 20-45MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 81W AND SOUTH OF 18N. BY
TUESDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST OFFSHORE EAST NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
COSTA RICA...AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FOR SAN ANDRES
ISLAND AND COSTA RICA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE EASTERLY WAVE IS
FORECAST OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND IS LOCATED OVER
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER INTO WEST EL SALVADOR. EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY IN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 102W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN...WITH LIMITED EFFECTS ON CONTINENTAL REGIONS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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