570
FXUS01 KWBC 161936
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023
VALID 00Z WED MAY 17 2023 - 00Z FRI MAY 19 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING...
..ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE WEST
...COOLER, DRIER AIR ACROSS GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK IN WAKE OF POTENT COLD FRONT...
A MULTITUDE OF WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WARM, MOIST AIR ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, RESULTING IN THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FURTHERMORE, THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, WHICH MAY
ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, EASTERN
KENTUCKY, AND PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY,
LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 1-2
INCHES.
FURTHER NORTH, A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
SHARP TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DECREASE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG
LAKE MICHIGAN, INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO
THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 60S ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION, WHILE AREAS
FURTHER INLAND, ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND, EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. FURTHERMORE, SEVERAL RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHED OR BROKEN ON THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE 32F DEGREE MARK BEFORE REBOUNDING
INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY.
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS, WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES APPROACHING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. WARM AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
INLAND AREAS AND THE GREAT BASIN BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN, WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXCEED THE 90-DEGREE MARK. FURTHERMORE,
WIDESPREAD RECORD-HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
COASTAL AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RUSSELL
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