632
FXUS01 KWBC 191959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2023
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 20 2023 - 00Z MON MAY 22 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING,
SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, SOME
MODERATION ON SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FEATURE GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN U.S. AND RIDGING FOR THE WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AND WEAKEN, BRINGING A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL ENSURE A WET SATURDAY FOR MANY FROM NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW ENGLAND. A BROAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FROM NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING BEFORE MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT, FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND TEXAS, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
THREATS EXTENDING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE THREATS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BUT THE CONCERNS FOR ADVERSE
WEATHER DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY/FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE 15-25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON,
OREGON, IDAHO, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF REDUCING HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT FOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON BUT SPREAD THE ABOVE AVERAGE
WARMTH INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ISOLATED RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST, BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF TERRAIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEAR A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
OTTO
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