987
FXCA20 KWBC 221228
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
828 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
22/12UTC: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CENTERS ON A LOW JUST TO THE EAST
OF SAMANA IN THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DEEP CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...AIDED PARTIALLY BY A
TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE THAT IS CROSSING THE CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN RADAR
SHOWS SOME HEAVY CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE STRUGGLING SIGNIFICANTLY ON RESOLVING THE CURRENT
WET EVENT. THEY ARE EVEN STRUGGLING ON CAPTURING THE CURRENT FLARE
UP OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOT PROMISING FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. THEY DO RESOLVE THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD...EXITING
THE VI DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. FROM WEDNESDAY AND ON...WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
RETURNS AND BECOMES LESS DIVERGENT. THIS WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO
SEASONAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. WHILE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS SPIN
AROUND THE MAIN LOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT PERIODS OF
ENHANCED DYNAMICALLY-INDUCED ASCENT AND FLARE UPS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION...EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
0.5-1 INCH ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WHERE MAXIMA IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE IS
EXPECTED...AND IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FAVOR MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES. THE COVERAGE OF
DEEP CONVECTION DECREASES ON TUESDAY...WHEN EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
0.15-0.25 INCHES IN MOST OF THE ISLAND...AND MAXIMA OF 1.5-2.5
INCHES IN NORTHERN PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO SEASONAL
THEREAFTER. UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES IN INTERIOR PORTIONS AND COASTAL
AREAS OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 1-1.5 INCHES IN COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...WHEN MAXIMA 0F 0.5-0.75 IS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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