539
FXCA20 KWBC 221626
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1226 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 22 MAY 2023 AT 1700 UTC: THE SYSTEM OF
INTEREST IS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH THAT CENTERS ON A LOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS ITS BASE INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. IN COMBINATION WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A
TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE...SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE DEVELOPING IN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. SIMILARLY...A FORMIDABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION
EXTENDS ALONG THE BASE AND SOUTHEAST TIER OF THE TROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLOES. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN THESE REGIONS...LIMITING THE EFFECTS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...THERE IS EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER EASTWARD SLOWLY. THIS WILL
STILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TUESDAY...DECREASING FROM WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECT THE HEAVIEST ON MONDAY. IN TERMS OF
AMOUNTS...ON MONDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IN THE NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. FROM NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA INTO THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN PUERTO RICO...WHILE IN HISPANIOLA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. REMNANT CONVECTION IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THIS
DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUERTO RICO/VI.
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL DESTABILIZE
THE REGION AND FAVOR MODERATE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN CENTRAL CUBA...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FOREAST
TO REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE ITCZ HAS BEEN DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH PRESENT DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
FAVOR A MORE ACTIVE START OF THE WEEK IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON MONDAY EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PANAMA. ON TUESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN EASTERN PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA
RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...WHILE IN EASTERN PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00
TW 14N 40W 43W 45W 47W 50W 52W 54W 57W
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 40W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N. IT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO FRENCH GUIANA ON
WEDNESDAY...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page