796
FXCA20 KWBC 231330
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
930 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 23 MAY 2023 AT 1700 UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH IS
DEEPENING WHILE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA ON TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE REAR END OF THIS TROUGH WILL FAVOR
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS. THIS WILL NOT ONLY FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO
PROVIDE IMPORTANT DESTABILIZATION AND VENTILATION OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA...FAVORING PERIODS OF SQUALLY WEATHER AND LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
WESTERN CUBA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A LEFT
EXIT OF AN UPPER JET TO DEVELOP A RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IN
NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...EXPECT A RISK FOR SQUALLY WEATHER WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUED RISK FOR SQUALLY
CONVECTION IN THE BAHAMAS...WHERE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS STILL
FORECAST. IN CUBA...EXPECT ALSO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES FAVORING STRONG CONVECTION IN PUERTO RICO
AND VI ON TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...YIELDING TO A STABILIZING AND DRYING TREND IN THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS IN
PUERTO RICO...VI AND THE NORTHWESTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST PLUME. THIS
WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS DECREASES GRADUALLY AFTER.
AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING OF THE EASTERLY TRADES AND THE
DEEPENING OF A MID-UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
MOREOVER...A BROAD ITCZ LOW LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA WILL FAVOR THE ADVECTION OF ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ON
TUESDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM WESTERN
PANAMA INTO GUANACASTE. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM IN THE SAME REGION. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY...WHEN EXPECT
AFTERNOON/NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THE AZUERO PENINSULA IN
PANAMA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN PANAMA/COSTA RICA AND IN THE GULF OF FONSECA
REGION...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 20-35MM.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH
AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN
IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE VENTILATION TO SUSTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ORIENTE ECUATORIANO AS A MOIST PLUME CROSSES THE
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TRIGGER HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE PACIFIC BASIN OF
ECUADOR/NARINO IN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 75-125MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA. THIS WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH
A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. ALONG WESTERN COLOMBIA...ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER POOL EXCEEDING 60MM WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00
TW 14N 45W 47W 50W 53W 56W 59W 62W 65W
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 45W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N. IT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO FRENCH GUIANA ON
WEDNESDAY...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
GUYANA/WESTERN SURINAME.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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