929
FXCA20 KWBC 241204
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
804 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
24/12UTC: THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LASE FEW DAYS IS FINALLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTERS NEAR 23N 61W
WHILE ASSOCIATING WITH A TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME HAS ALSO MEANDERED
EASTWARD...AND NOT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLAND AND NORTHEAST
VI. IN THE MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS VENEZUELA AND
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...STARTING TO EXTEND ITS AXIS INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...ST. CROIX AND
VIEQUES...WHERE VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE PRESENT.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING
WHILE MEANDER NORTH TO CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE CURRENT DRYING TREND...LEADING TO
THE DRIEST CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE MOIST PLUME
CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO BE
TRANSPORTED BACK WEST INTO THE VI...TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATION. THIS PLUME WILL THEN CROSS PUERTO RICO DURING
SUNDAY...WHILE A REGION OF DRY AIR AND HIGHER STABILITY MOVES IN
THEREAFTER. THIS WILL FAVOR A PEAK IN PRECIPITATIOON ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN DURING PREVIOUS DAYS...WHICH
HAS INCREASED THE CONFIDENCE ION THE EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN TH E COMING DAYS.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PUERTO RICO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES. ON WEDNESDAY...LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL FAVOR MODERATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH FORECAST MAXIMA OF 0.75-1.25 INCHES. A RISK FOR
MODERATE AMOUNTS IN THE SAN JUAN METRO EXISTS...GIVEN DEVELOPMENT
OF SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID-LEVELS. ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 0.5-1 INCH...DECREASNG FURTHER ON FRIDAY
TO 0.4-0.7 IN. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE RETURN OF EASTERLY TRADES
AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN THE CORDILLERA AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE
MOIST PLUME WILL ALSO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE VI...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN
PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST MAXIMA OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. YET...AS THE MOIST PLUME CROSSES THE ISLAND
EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
WESTERN VI.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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