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FXCA20 KWBC 241617
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1216 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 24 MAY 2023 AT 1700 UTC: ON WEDNESDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS DEEPENING OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
PROPOGATING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...WHERE LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MAY
EXPECT LARGER AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH A
RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER...WHILE NORTHEASTERN CUBA MAY SEE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS AND A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. NOTE THE LEFT EXIT OF AN
UPPER JET OVER CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS OFTEN FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DYNAMICALLY-INDUCED ASCENT. ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS AND IN
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUED RISK FOR SQUALLY
CONVECTION IN THE BAHAMAS. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
COULD SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE
GREATER ANTILLES EXPECT A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR SEVERITY AND MAXIMA
GENERALLY RANGING 20-30MM. ON FRIDAY...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA...IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE TROUGH ACROSS
FLORIDA/BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO HOLD. ALTHOUGH THE REGION OF MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD...ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE IN THE GREATER
ANTILLES EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 15-25MM IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN...A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS EXPECTED A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SETS FOOTHOLD AND THE MOIST PLUME...CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VI...MOVES AWAY.
AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING OF THE EASTERLY TRADES
AND THE DEEPENING OF A MID-UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MOREOVER...A
BROAD ITCZ LOW LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA WILL
FAVOR THE ADVECTION OF ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE PACIFIC BASIN EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
THURSDAY...THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-40MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...GENERALIZED MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM ARE FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...THE BROAD ITCZ LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST OF COSTA RICA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW...YIELDING AN
INCREASE IN AMOUNTS TO 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM THE
GUANACASTE REGION TO THE AZUERO PENINSULA. IN NICARAGUA INTO
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE VENTILATION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...TO SUSTAIN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION. THE STRONG CONVECTION
IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL THEN FAVOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA
INTO CENTRAL COLOMBIA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ASCENT TO THE
AFORMENTIONED REGIONS. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
WEST OVER NORTH SOUTH AMERICA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
TRIGGER HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE PACIFIC BASIN OF ECUADOR/NARINO IN
COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH A
RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA CAN
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA. ALONG WESTERN COLOMBIA...ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER POOL EXCEEDING 60MM WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER NORTH COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA/ECUADOR/WESTERN VENEZUELA...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON FRIDAY...THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO PULL THE TROUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWEST. PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
30-80MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00
TW 12N 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W 63W 66W 68W
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 48W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N. IT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO FRENCH GUIANA ON
WEDNESDAY...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
GUYANA/WESTERN SURINAME. AND ON FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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