723
FXUS01 KWBC 250801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2023
VALID 12Z THU MAY 25 2023 - 12Z SAT MAY 27 2023
...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY
FOR THE EAST COAST...
...INCREASING THREAT FOR WINDS AND RIP CURRENTS FOR BEACHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER 48
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MEANS THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY FOR DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH
MINOR EXCEPTIONS. IN THE WESTERN U.S., A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PEAK IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FARTHER
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK AS
WELL AS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVER THE EASTERN U.S., UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT
INCLUDING THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASED LEVELS OF
CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY FOR COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS BUT SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY
IMPACT COASTAL REGIONS, SUPPORTING A LOW END THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD CREATE ROUGH SURF AND
BEACH HAZARDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN LATE-MAY AVERAGES (10-15 DEGREES COOLER)
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, WITH LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHEAST EXPERIENCING A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTTO
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