874
FXCA20 KWBC 251808
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 25 MAY 2023 AT 1700 UTC: ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES DEEPENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...FROM
THE SOUTHERN USA WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL PANAMA. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEAST. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE EAST FLORIDA PROVIDING VENTILATION
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD AND THE AREAS OF INSTABILITY MOVE
NORTHWARD...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A GENERAL DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY SATURDAY AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. ON THURSDAY...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MAY EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BOTH AREAS HAVE A RISK FOR
SQUALLY WEATHER. ON FRIDAY...THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST FOR
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. CUBA AND WEST HISPANIOLA ARE
FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
JAMAICA WILL YIELD 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...EXTREME EAST CUBA...AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT A DECREASE OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM.
TO THE WEST IN MEXICO...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE VENTILATION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...WITH A
NOTABLE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
COAHUILA AND EAST CHIHUAHUA..WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN
OAXACA/GUERRERO WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE..ALONG
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A WEAKENING OF THE EASTERLY TRADES AND THE
DEEPENING OF A MID-UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS ASSISTING IN AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. WHILE A BROAD ITCZ LOW LOCATED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA WILL FAVOR THE ADVECTION OF ITCZ
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INLAND. ON THURSDAY...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ARE FORECAST FOR 15-2OMM WITH A MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NICARAGUA/EL
SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS...MAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST SEE THE
EFFECTS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH AMOUNTS FORECAST OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. CENTRAL PANAMA AND THE BORDER BETWEEN
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ARE FORECAST MAXIMA GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-40MM.
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ITCZ LOW
MEANDERS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WHERE COSTA RICA IS FORECAST FOR
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
VENTILATION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...TO SUSTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION. THE STRONG CONVECTION IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA WILL THEN FAVOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA INTO
CENTRAL COLOMBIA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ASCENT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST OVER NORTH
SOUTH AMERICA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...ALONG
WESTERN COLOMBIA...ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER
POOL EXCEEDING 60MM WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER NORTH
COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA/ECUADOR/WESTERN VENEZUELA...EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON FRIDAY...THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PULL THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST.
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST FOR GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 30-80MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER
NORTH COLOMBIA...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...ISOLATED MAXIMA AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
15-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00
TW 13N 54W 57W 60W 64W 66W 68W 70W 71W
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 54W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN GUYANA/WESTERN SURINAME. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA. AND ON SATURDAY...SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN VENEZUELA.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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