826
FXCA20 KWBC 261231
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
831 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
26/12UTC: WHILE A VERY LARGE SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
TTHE SOUTHEAST USA INTO HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IN THE
MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE VI. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTING STABILITY AND DRYING
OF THE MID-LEVELS. A MOIST PLUME EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 50MM.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO THE WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VI...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGES 40-45MM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND FAVOR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION...IT WILL NOT STRENGTHEN TO THE POINT TO
FULLY INHIBIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE EASTERN TRADES RETURN
ON SATURDAY...THE MOIST PLUME EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER WEST AND FAVOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTER THESE PERIODS...THE PLUME EXITS WEST
INTO HISPANIOLA...YIELDING A DRIER AIR MASS AND CONSEQUENT
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION.
ON FRIDAY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WILL
FAVOR VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WITH
FORECAST MAXIMA UNDER 0.4 INCHES. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE VI...WHERE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 0.2-0,4
INCHES. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRYING TREND IN THE
VI...WHERE MAXIMA UNDER 0.2 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF VIEQUES...WHERE MAXIMA COULD STILL REACH 0.5 INCHES. IN PUERTO
RICO EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE ENTIRE ISLAND WITH
MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.2 INCHES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 1-1.75 INCHES.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHERE
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
GENERALLY UNDER 0.4 INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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