849
FXCA20 KWBC 261824
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 26 MAY 2023 AT 1800 UTC: IN MEXICO...AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY. THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
VENTILATION OVER AREAS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER NORTH
MEXICO AND REGIONS IN THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...WHERE EXPECT THE
LARGEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ON FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN/GUERRERO/OAXACA ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. PORTIONS OF DURANGO AND ZACATECAS ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE IN CHIHUAHUA AND
PORTIONS OF COAHUILA/DURANGO...MAXIMA ARE FORECAST BELOW 15MM. ON
SATURDAY...EAST CHIHUAHUA/WEST COAHUILA ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY WITH 25-50MM. DURANGO/ZACATECAS/NORTH SAN LUIS POTOSI
AND AREAS BETWEEN MICHOACAN AND PUEBLA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
10-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
FORECAST. ON SUNDAY...FROM COAHUILA TO TAMAULIPAS...EXPECT AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM TLAXCALA/PUEBLA AND
WEST OAXACA...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTH CARIBBEAN IS IN PLACE
WHILE AREAS OF INSTABILITY MOVE NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NORTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
MEANDERS NORTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ON FRIDAY...THE BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS MAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE CUBA MAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY SEE MAXIMA
BELOW 15MM. ON SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGHS WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE SOUTH.
THE BAHAMAS/CUBA AND PUERTO RICO/VI ARE FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. HISPANIOLA...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EAST
JAMAICA MAY SEE LARGER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH MAXIMA
FORECAST OF 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY...THE GREATER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST
WITH MAXIMA GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-35MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A BROAD ITCZ LOW LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COSTA RICA WILL FAVOR ADVECTION OF ITCZ MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AN INLAND. IN ADDITION...THE ITCZ CONVECTION IS LOCATION
OVER SOUTH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WHICH WILL BE FUELING CONVECTION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE NORTH...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING MEXICO LATER
IN THE FORECASTING PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REACH GUATEMALA/EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS REGION ON SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC BASIN
OF COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA ARE FORECAST 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN PANAMA...MAXIMA ARE FORECAST BELOW 25MM.
NICARAGUA AND EXTREME EAST EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST FOR
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. WHILE ELSEWHERE EL SALVADOR
AND INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EXPECT MAXIMA BETWEEN 20-30MM. ON
SATURDAY...COSTA RICA MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE WITH AMOUNTS
FORECAST TO 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35. SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR/WEST NICARAGUA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST BELOW 25MM. ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR...LOWER AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM ARE
EXPECTED. EAST COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION AND PILE UP OF
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS AND A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA. WHILE IN SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...ONSHORE FLOW IS FUELING
CONVECTION TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
FROM EASTERN COLOMBIA TO EAST VENEZUELA...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN THE GUIANAS...A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHERE
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER WEST COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM. VENEZUELA AND EAST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND WEST
ECUADOR ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON SUNDAY...THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER WEST VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN EAST COLOMBIA...PORTIONS OF NORTH BRASIL...AND INTO GUYANA.
ELSEWHERE OVER NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
GENERALLY BELOW 35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00
TW 15N 60W 64W 66W 68W 69W 70W 72W 74W
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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